The on-chain chip distribution is one reason, but more importantly, the current market is still event-driven. In the absence of events, it is liquidity-driven. Therefore, when events provide positive feedback, U.S. stocks will rise, and $BTC has been highly correlated with U.S. stocks until now. So when U.S. stocks rise, it easily drives up Bitcoin.

In simpler terms, the relationship between U.S. stocks and BTC is quite similar to that between BTC and ETH. When BTC rises, ETH rises even more, but when BTC falls, ETH falls harder. In traditional risk markets, it becomes that when U.S. stocks rise, BTC rises more, but when U.S. stocks fall, BTC may not necessarily fall harder.

The essence is that between BTC and ETH, BTC is a post-settlement asset, and compared to U.S. stocks, BTC is still a post-settlement asset.

What is post-settlement?

It means that when you have both BTC and ETH, due to the larger decline in ETH, it is more likely to get liquidated or incur larger losses, so ETH is settled first and then BTC. Essentially, it is still a liquidity issue; BTC has better liquidity and better consensus.

The relationship between BTC and U.S. stocks lies in the fact that U.S. stocks have better liquidity but are larger in scale. Especially when the asset side seeks to hedge, it is often the largest assets that run first, while relatively smaller funds are settled later.

However, when systemic risks arise, such as an economic recession, the decline in BTC may be greater than that of U.S. stocks. This is because, at that time, all assets are being processed simultaneously, and compared to U.S. stocks, BTC's liquidity is much worse. Therefore, at the same level of liquidation, U.S. stocks and BTC are similar to BTC and ETH.

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