"We are in a complex economic environment. Although facing uncertainty, the U.S. economy still shows resilience. At the same time, the innovative development of the financial system must be advanced on the basis of safety and stability." — Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve

On June 24, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell attended a hearing of the House Financial Services Committee to testify on the "Semiannual Monetary Policy Report." This not only serves as a periodic summary of the Federal Reserve's assessment of the economic situation but also provides directional signals that the market is highly concerned about against the backdrop of recurring global inflation, rising geopolitical risks, and unclear regulatory frameworks for crypto assets.

1. Macroeconomic Outlook: Growth is Resilient, but Uncertainty Remains

Powell described the current economic situation with the keyword "solid" and emphasized:

The labor market is strong: In the first five months of this year, non-farm employment added an average of 224,000 jobs per month; the unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, close to full employment levels.

Economic growth continues: Although GDP slightly declined in the first quarter, this was mainly influenced by "front-loading of trade imports," not indicative of a representative contraction. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts that second-quarter growth will approach 4%, further confirming that the economy has not fallen into recession.

Consumer spending has slowed, but investment in business equipment and intangible assets is recovering, and private domestic final demand continues to grow at a pace of 2.5%.

He pointed out that the current uncertainty mainly stems from trade policy disruptions and geopolitical variables, and the decline in confidence indices reflects businesses' concerns about future tariffs and changes in global supply chains.

2. Inflation and Tariffs: Pressure Remains, Fed Will "Learn as We Go"

Regarding inflation, Powell stated:

PCE rose 2.3% year-on-year, and core PCE rose 2.6%, significantly lower than the mid-2022 peak but not yet back to the 2% long-term target.

Market inflation expectations have slightly increased, mainly related to the transmission effects of new tariffs.

Powell clearly stated, "Tariffs this year are much larger than ever before," and if their impact persists, it could lead to a rebound in inflation.

Regarding policy formulation, he emphasized data-driven flexibility:

"We will assess the specific impact of tariffs based on the upcoming CPI and PCE data for June, July, and August. If the impact is found to be limited, we may initiate a loosening path earlier; otherwise, we will continue to observe."

This means that inflation expectations have become a key variable affecting the pace of Federal Reserve policy, significantly reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in July, while September and beyond become important windows for policy adjustments.

3. Monetary Policy Path: Short-term Observation, Hope for Rate Cuts Within the Year

Since the beginning of the year, the Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate unchanged in the range of 4.25%–4.5%.

Most FOMC members believe that "a rate cut later this year is appropriate," provided that inflation slows or the labor market weakens.

Powell cited the context of a rate cut in September 2024 (when the unemployment rate is close to 5%) to illustrate that the current labor market remains strong, thus there is no urgent motivation for easing.

He admitted, "If we wait until inflation returns to 2% to act, it will be too late." This indicates that the tension between forward-looking adjustments and lagging indicators is creating a dilemma in current policy formulation.

Market consensus quickly responded — CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in July has dropped to about 25%, while expectations for a rate cut in September remain stable between 65% and 70%.

4. Crypto Financial Regulation: Bank Services for Crypto Officially "Approved"

One of the most noteworthy highlights from this testimony for the Web3 industry is Powell's first clear statement in a public congressional setting:

"Banks can provide services and related businesses to the crypto industry as long as they can ensure the safety and soundness of the financial system."

This statement is highly groundbreaking. It breaks the regulatory vacuum where traditional banks have been hesitant to engage with crypto account services, opening the door for Web3 infrastructure to align with compliance systems:

• Stablecoin clearing services (such as USDC, PYUSD) may gradually receive endorsement from mainstream banks;

• Crypto custody platforms (such as Anchorage, Fireblocks) will become the preferred choice for bank compliance cooperation;

• RWA (real-world assets) and tokenized financial instruments connected with off-chain assets may accelerate development;

• US Crypto Banks (such as Custodia) may find it easier to obtain state and federal licensing support.

More importantly, Powell also emphasized that the Federal Reserve has no intention of purchasing Bitcoin or Trumpcoin, indicating its policy discipline to encourage innovation while excluding official intervention in asset prices.

5. Real Estate, AI, and Fed Independence: Maintaining Confidence, Stabilizing Expectations

Powell also addressed several hot topics in his testimony:

The real estate market is suppressed by high mortgage rates, but rental inflation data is declining, and the Federal Reserve will continue to prioritize "restoring price stability."

The technological transformation brought by artificial intelligence may impact the labor structure, but the Federal Reserve's mission remains maximum employment and price stability, with other regulatory responsibilities relying on legislative bodies and market mechanisms.

The U.S. dollar's status as a global reserve currency remains solid, with the rule of law and institutional advantages as its fundamental support. The Federal Reserve will continue to maintain this core competitiveness by "stabilizing the currency value."

Upholding central bank independence, unaffected by political cycles, and not responding to election-year "pressure for rate cuts."

Conclusion: The Web3 Industry Welcomes a Policy "Dawn Window"

The multiple signals released from this congressional testimony represent a clear turning point for the Web3 industry chain:

U.S. macro policy remains conservatively cautious, but if inflation is not as intense as expected, there is still room for rate cuts around September, which is favorable for risk assets;

Crypto compliance is gradually becoming clearer: bank service policies are defined, and custody/payment/stablecoin infrastructure may enter a growth channel;

The trend of dollar on-chainization is strengthening, constituting long-term benefits for projects like USDC, tokenized government bonds, and RWA.

After experiencing a phase of regulatory suppression to gray area exploration over the past few years, Web3 has finally welcomed a "golden mid-stage" characterized by "compliance + mainstream access." This may be the closest we have come to the legalization of DeFi, on-chain dollars, and the tokenization of real-world assets.

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