Original Author: TRACER

Translation | Odaily Planet Daily

Translator | Ethan

Editor's Note: As August begins, the cryptocurrency market faces severe volatility again: Bitcoin weakens in the short term, altcoins generally correct by 20%-30%, with daily liquidations exceeding $1.5 billion. The main driver behind this is pointed towards Trump. From new tariff policies, escalating geopolitical tensions, to macro data reversals and the Federal Reserve's inaction, the market is once again shrouded in FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt). Meanwhile, rumors of "Trump secretly selling off crypto assets" have intensified market panic, triggering a new round of chain reactions. In this article, the author dissects macro data and capital flows, presenting a judgment that differs from the mainstream: the short-term correction may be an opportunity for long-term positioning, and the real "second wave bull market" may already be brewing.

Note: The views expressed in this article are clearly stated and do not constitute investment advice. Odaily Planet Daily reminds readers to rationally reference the analysis content and make prudent decisions based on their own circumstances.

Original Content

Market optimism dissipates, adjustments quietly arrive, Bitcoin falls 9% from its historical high, and altcoins generally correct by 20%-30%.

At the beginning of August, the market suddenly faced intense selling pressure, with daily liquidation exceeding $1.5 billion. The core question is: Is the impetus for this round of decline severe? How should we respond?

The core trigger for this correction lies in the latest moves by U.S. President Trump:

• New tariff policy proposals;
• Escalation of geopolitical uncertainties;
• Conflicting macroeconomic data.

First, let's focus on the exhausting "new tariff proposal." Over 66 countries have been listed for potential tariff increases—it's the same old routine. Each time it feels like a "replay of an old script," even giving the impression of "market manipulation."

However, the U.S. government clearly would not risk an economic recession just for these tariffs.

Market corrections triggered by such operations are not new to us. Retail investors often view such news as significant bearish signals, overreacting.

Think back, how many times have similar tariff threats been announced? And how many times has the market set new highs afterward?

Therefore, there is no need to worry excessively; this is already a well-worn topic.

In addition to tariffs, the recent surge in geopolitical risks has also heightened unease. The trigger was: the U.S. announced the deployment of two nuclear submarines near Russia. Is this concerning? Indeed.

But think calmly: does anyone really believe a nuclear war will break out in 2025? This is more likely a "pressure tactic" aimed at pushing the negotiation process.

However, what truly gives U.S. economic decision-makers (like the Federal Reserve) headaches is the chaotic macro data from the labor market.

The market's previous bets on a "shift in Federal Reserve policy" (interest rate cuts) have fallen flat.

More critically, the non-farm payroll data (NFP) for May and June was revised down nearly tenfold, severely shaking the market's confidence in the overall reliability of macro data.

Ultimately, multiple factors have formed a powerful "combination punch":

• Persistently high interest rates;
• Increasing signs of economic cooling.

These factors combined have led to a significant shrinkage in institutional investor demand this week. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for the first time.

So, what is my judgment on the market outlook?

My current view is based on the understanding that macro pressures are continuously accumulating. Currently, no major economy can generate sufficient credit growth to support sustained GDP expansion.

I have set key support levels at: Bitcoin $110,000, Ethereum $3,200.

I expect that by September, the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to initiate interest rate cuts to re-stimulate the market:

• Inflation data has significantly declined;
• The job market is under pressure;
• Powell seems intent on delaying the interest rate cut decision.

As the time approaches, the market is expected to open an upward trend again.

Historical patterns show that after every similar FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt), the market tends to experience a strong rebound.

Referring to the correlation chart between M2 money supply and Bitcoin prices, the conclusion is clear: the market trend follows liquidity, and the overall global liquidity environment remains loose.

Therefore, the current fluctuations are essentially a global market game layered with FUD.

Looking ahead to autumn, with the onset of the interest rate cut cycle, I expect major funds to flow back in large scale, thus initiating a true "altcoin season."

At that time, it will be a critical window for actively locking in profits.

This is precisely my current positioning direction.

In this adjustment, I am focusing on the continuous accumulation of three types of assets: BTC, SOL, and ETH.

I am particularly optimistic about ETH's technical potential and fundamentals, and I have also noticed the increasing interest from institutions. On August 3, a wallet related to Shraplink once again increased its holdings of ETH by $36 million, which is a case in point.

In summary, the strategy is clear: view the current volatility as an opportunity to accumulate positions.

The market landscape is evolving, and such a low buying window is unlikely to last long. Now is the time to build positions step by step, reserve chips, and wait for the market from October to December.

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