Source: Uweb Live Sharing
Content Organized by: Peter_Techub News
On the evening of August 12, 2025, at 20:30, the 182nd Uweb live class was held with the theme "How Much More Can Ethereum Rise Based on On-Chain Data," hosted by Uweb Principal Yu Jianing, inviting Michael, the founder of CoinChain Hezai, to share. The live broadcast revolved around three topics: analysis of Teacher He Shaofeng's weekly report, on-chain data indicating Ethereum's upward trend and the bull market engine roles of Sharplink and Bitmine, and a private discussion among students on the leading potential of altcoins. Assistant Rui Bin introduced upcoming activities, including the Bitcoin Conference in Hong Kong at the end of August, a practical workshop in Shenzhen on August 15, a study tour in the United States from August 17-23 (20-person group, planned to expand to 30), and the Hong Kong Registered Digital Asset Analyst (CDA) exam, with hot registration for the Level 3 exam in October. Free online pre-exam training will be provided on August 23-24, covering RWA, Web3, and the linkage between coins and stocks, endorsed by the Hong Kong Examinations and Assessment Authority.
Analysis of Teacher He Shaofeng's Weekly Report
He Shaofeng (A Feng) shared the Web3 weekly report from August 4-11, pointing out that Ethereum (ETH) rose by 15%, Bitcoin (BTC) approached its historical high, breaking through the resistance level of $118,000, and the market performed strongly. On-chain data revealed an increase in demand from short-term holders, a slowdown in distribution from long-term holders holding for over 155 days, and a cumulative holding of 776,000 BTC by holders for over 365 days, with only 238,000 BTC distributed, leading to a reluctance to sell that pushed prices higher. The imbalance of supply and demand may drive the rise, but it is necessary to observe for one or two weeks to confirm the distribution cycle. The funding rate for Ethereum has not overheated, indicating a healthy market, with altcoins like Hyperledger and Palm leading the way, suggesting localized opportunities. Off-chain indicators show that BTC and ETH have not experienced excessive leverage, but there are liquidation risks for some altcoins. The market capitalization of stablecoins is growing slowly, with insufficient inflow to exchanges, limiting significant increases. The global momentum radar indicates a decline in sentiment in the Americas and Asia, with a net inflow of $180 million into BTC ETFs and a 73% expectation of a rate cut in September (25 basis points). A Feng believes that after BTC breaks $118,000, there is no significant resistance, and ETH and BTC are expected to reach new highs, but caution is needed regarding the risks of a pullback due to declining sentiment and insufficient liquidity.
On-Chain Analysis of Ethereum's Upward Trend and the Bull Market Engine Roles of Chainlink and Bitmain
Yu Jianing's Question: How much more can Ethereum rise? Is a rate cut a direct benefit? How do macro factors like Trump's tariff war affect the market? How do Sharplink (optimized to Chainlink) and Bitmine (optimized to Bitmain) drive the bull market?
Michael: Ethereum has great potential to break through $4,000, driven by institutional support and favorable policies. On-chain data shows that the ETH balance on centralized exchanges has decreased by 10%, and the POS staking rate of 30% still has room for growth, with institutional buying reducing volatility. The weekly chart has broken through a triangular consolidation, and in the short term, it may pull back to $4,000, with a target of $5,000-$5,600 in September, and potentially reaching $15,000-$20,000 in the long term. The stablecoin bill may release $150 trillion in U.S. Treasury pressure, allowing the crypto market capitalization to increase tenfold, with ETH being indispensable as infrastructure, targeting $8,000 by the end of the year, and BTC potentially reaching $250,000. Michael emphasized that the benefits of rate cuts have not been fully realized, and the Trump tariff war is not over, but policy shifts (such as the stablecoin bill) and traditional finance embracing (such as the convenience of USDT payment cards) are positive. He cited his experience with BTC, where he did not sell at $69,000, bought at $22,000, and built positions at $25,000, emphasizing not selling core holdings and clearing positions at phase high points (like $52,000) to re-enter on pullbacks. Chainlink provides reliable data for the ETH ecosystem through its oracle, while Bitmain supports the stability of the ETH and BTC networks through computing power infrastructure, jointly shaping the foundation of the bull market. Solana is competitive due to innovation and U.S. capital, but ETH has stronger global consensus. Michael holds both and suggests a long-term approach to navigate bull and bear markets.
Student Private Discussion - Which Altcoin Has the Most Hope to Lead the Rise
Yu Jianing: What is the relationship between Ethereum's Layer 2 projects and the mainnet? What is the potential of ecological projects (such as oracles, DeFi)? What is the outlook for other public chains and altcoins (such as WG, Gala, CRV, Meme coins)? What are the possible scenarios for a pullback to $2,800? What are the investment logic and suggestions?
Michael: Ethereum's Layer 2 projects have not significantly reduced gas fees or improved TPS, failing to benefit the mainnet. Polygon and others have reduced their positions, with only Uniswap and Chainlink showing vitality. Mainnet upgrades will enhance competitiveness, targeting $8,000 by the end of the year, with extreme pullbacks to $2,800-$3,000 possible due to 40% of staked tokens unlocking selling pressure or technical pullbacks. Solana's high concurrency is favored by U.S. capital, while the BNB chain has weaker infrastructure. Bitcoin inscriptions (such as Ordinals) may build a decentralized metaverse, with huge long-term potential. Among altcoins, WG (RWA positioning) communities have gained 4-5 times returns but need to guard against wash trading; Gala has great potential due to Web3 gaming but is progressing slowly; DeFi (such as CRV) aligns with the "de-KYC" logic and has rebound potential; Meme coins like Rune Dog are hot in the short term but not recommended for chasing highs. In terms of investment logic, Michael emphasizes operating within one's understanding, relying on research teams for selection, and that Meme coins should be entered early or with insider knowledge. He does not sell core holdings, clears positions at phase high points (like $52,000), and re-enters on pullbacks (like $25,000). Yu Jianing introduced the U.S. study tour, focusing on the integration of coins and stocks, RWA tokenization, and the expansion of compliant stablecoins, inviting Bobby Lee, Herman (Kraken), Michael Lee (former Coinbase VP), and others to share insights on how Web3 reshapes American society and regulatory trends, involving projects like PayPal and Hivemind, aiming to uncover wealth opportunities.
Summary
This live session revealed the bull market potential of Ethereum and Bitcoin through on-chain and off-chain data analysis, emphasizing institutional drivers, policy benefits, and the role of infrastructure. Chainlink and Bitmain support the bull market engine through data and computing power, respectively. Investment in altcoins should focus on team backgrounds and narratives, exercising caution in chasing highs, and flexibly operating in conjunction with macro sentiment. The U.S. study tour provides in-depth industry insights to help capture future wealth opportunities.
Note: All content is for academic discussion only and does not constitute investment advice.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
