Written by: Wenser (@wenser 2010)

Following the ETH reserve treasury's support for the rise in ETH prices, the SOL reserve strategy has taken over.

As of September 16, Strategic SOL Reserve data shows that the total holdings of 17 entities that have established SOL treasury reserves have reached 17.112 million SOL, accounting for 2.98% of the current total supply of SOL, with a market value of $4.04 billion. Approximately 7.405 million SOL is being staked, valued at $1.32 billion, with an average staking yield of 7.96%, accounting for 1.288% of the total supply. Meanwhile, the U.S. publicly listed company Helius Medical Technologies (NASDAQ: HSDT) announced last night that it has completed a $500 million private placement to transform into a SOL treasury company, led by Pantera Capital and Summer Capital. This financing includes the sale of common stock at $6.881 per share and warrants at $10.134 each. If all warrants are exercised, the total amount raised is expected to exceed $1.25 billion. If all funds are used to establish SOL reserves, Helius is expected to become the "second largest SOL reserve publicly listed company" after Forward. Odaily Planet Daily will analyze Helius's establishment of SOL treasury and explore the estimated upper limit of the SOL reserve strategy.

This Helius is not the same as that Helius, Pantera's SOL treasury ambitions

First, it is important to clarify that although the company is abbreviated as Helius, the U.S. publicly listed company Helius Medical Technologies (NASDAQ: HSDT) is not the same as the Solana infrastructure provider Helius.

The former is a neurotechnology company focused on using an intraoral application technology platform to improve the physiological compensation mechanisms of patients with neurological diseases and promote neural plasticity, thereby enhancing brain capabilities to cope with neurological functional deficits. The company's first commercial product is a portable neuroregulation stimulator. The latter is a developer platform for the Solana ecosystem, founded in 2022 by former software engineers from Coinbase and Amazon Web Services. It completed a $3.1 million seed round financing in October 2022 (led by Reciprocal Ventures and Chapter One, with participation from Solana Ventures, Alchemy Ventures, Big Brain Ventures, Propel VC, and angel investors such as Zhuoxun Yin, co-founder of Magic Eden, and Stepan Simkin, co-founder of Squads), followed by a $9.5 million Series A financing in February 2024 (led by Foundation Capital, with participation from Reciprocal Ventures, 6th Man Ventures, Chapter One, and Propel), and a $21.75 million new round of financing in September 2024 (with participation from Haun Ventures, Founders Fund, Foundation Capital, 6th Man Ventures, Chapter One, and Spearhead).

The most important behind-the-scenes driver for Helius entering the SOL treasury reserve camp is actually Pantera, a significant institution in the Solana ecosystem.

Pantera bets on Solana: SOL as the largest holding, with a book value of $1.1 billion

In a previous interview with CNBC, Pantera Capital founder Dan Morehead stated that the institution holds SOL valued at $1.1 billion, making it its largest holding.

He also mentioned that Solana is the fastest and best-performing blockchain, and over the past four years, Solana has outperformed Bitcoin. Regarding future public chain competition, he believes there will absolutely not be one dominant player, nor will there be thousands of public chains thriving together; only a handful of successful public chains will exist, such as Ethereum, Bitcoin, and Solana.

It is not difficult to see from his remarks that, like Kyle Samani, co-founder of Multicoin and chairman of the board of Forward Industries (FORD), who single-handedly promoted the establishment of a $1.6 billion SOL treasury, Dan Morehead is also a firm "SOL bull."

At the end of August, according to media reports, Pantera indicated plans to raise up to $1.25 billion to acquire a Nasdaq-listed company and rename it "Solana Co," which would focus on SOL reserves.

Now, although Helius has not yet changed its name, based on existing information, it is highly likely that the company will be the entity for Pantera's bet on a SOL treasury publicly listed company.

Additionally, Pantera is not only betting on SOL and the Solana ecosystem; the institution has also invested in ETH treasury publicly listed companies— in August, Pantera Capital first disclosed that it has invested over $300 million in Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies. Ethereum treasury publicly listed company BitMine Immersion is a key holding for them, as it is the third-largest DAT company globally, holding 1.15 million ETH, valued at approximately $4.9 billion. This holding has now grown to 2.15 million ETH, valued at $9.72 billion.

ETH treasury reserves are ongoing, and SOL treasury reserves are closely following: SOL is expected to rebound to around $270

Following the surge in ETH treasury reserves by numerous publicly listed companies, many companies have begun to focus on SOL, sparking another round of "public company coin hoarding arms race" after BTC and ETH.

According to media reports, Forward Industries recently announced the purchase of 6,822,000 SOL at an average price of $232 per SOL, totaling approximately $1.58 billion. This transaction is the first deployment of the company's $1.65 billion PIPE financing, led by Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, and Multicoin Capital. All purchased SOL has been staked, with some transactions completed through the Solana on-chain platform DFlow. The company plans to enhance the per-share value of SOL through active management and on-chain operations.

Even more intriguing, during today's ThreadGuy podcast, Multicoin co-founder and Forward Industries (FORD) chairman Kyle Samani mentioned the possibility of the treasury company continuing to raise funds. He stated: "I've done so much work, not just to raise $1.65 billion and then stop. My vision is much bigger." This may indicate that Forward will continue to buy SOL in large quantities, and as a result of this news, the SOL price has slightly rebounded, currently reported above $235.

In comparison, we will use the price increase of ETH after the establishment of the ETH treasury as a reference to "carve a boat to seek a sword" to estimate the upper limit of the funding scale for the SOL treasury reserves and the resulting increase in SOL prices.

Based on ETH price increase, SOL price may recover to $270

Since May 26, when Sharplink announced the establishment of the ETH treasury, as of September 16, the holdings of publicly listed companies in the ETH treasury have gradually increased to nearly 5 million ETH, valued at $22.55 billion, accounting for 4.13% of the total supply of ETH; meanwhile, the ETH price has risen from $2,500 to around $4,500, an increase of about 80%.

In comparison, SOL fell below $100 in early April, with a minimum price of around $95. Now, with Forward joining the ranks of SOL treasury publicly listed companies with a financing amount of $1.6 billion on September 8, the holdings of publicly listed companies in SOL have increased to $4 billion, and the SOL price has risen from $204 to around $235, an increase of about 15%.

If we calculate based on the value of holdings by SOL treasury companies like Forward and Helius (currently calculated at a maximum holding value of $2.85 billion) growing to half the holding value of the two major ETH treasury publicly listed companies (currently valued at about $13.5 billion), SOL would see approximately $4 billion in buying pressure, and at that time, the SOL price is expected to rise to around $270 (based on a 15% increase).

Combining the current value of publicly listed companies' SOL treasury holdings with the ETH treasury holdings value ratio, the total value of SOL treasury needs to grow about 5 times, and SOL may be expected to reach a new price high, at which point the total amount of SOL treasury reserves will increase to about 6% of the total supply of SOL.

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