Tesla has always been a company I really like and a mainstay in my long-term portfolio, especially after it launched the Model YL in China in August. We believe this is a great opportunity to increase our holdings (as hinted in the tweet), and at that time, the stock price was around $300, which was followed by a sharp upward trend. Additionally, the new European standard 5M battery will soon be introduced domestically, with a range exceeding 700 kilometers, marking a new growth point.

But why did Tesla's stock price drop after the earnings report, despite impressive revenue performance? The main reason is that AI, Robotaxi, and the Optimus humanoid robot have not effectively generated revenue support, and after telling the story for too long, the market is concerned about the difficulty of realization.

First, let's take a brief look at the earnings report. This time, the #MSX Research Institute conducted a detailed analysis. Tesla's revenue was $28.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%, far exceeding market expectations (analysts estimated $26.3-26.5 billion). This is a positive sign, indicating that sales and business scale are still expanding, especially with strong growth in the energy storage sector.

However, the problem is that the earnings per share (EPS) was only $0.50, which not only did not grow but was also below the expected $0.53-$0.55. The adjusted net profit for the third quarter was $1.77 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 29%. This means that profits did not keep pace with revenue, which is a significant issue for growth stocks.

🤔 Continuing to break it down, the core issue lies in "costs"—spending too aggressively.

I looked at the costs for this quarter, and they nearly exploded: operating expenses were $3.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50%. The operating profit margin dropped to 5.8%, down over 500 basis points from last year.

This is actually quite understandable. Musk is aggressively investing in AI, Robotaxi, and the Optimus humanoid robot, leading to a significant increase in overall costs. Without actual profit output, this area is indeed a financial drag. At the same time, labor, tariffs, and fixed costs are not being absorbed enough; even if cars are sold in large quantities, the factory costs are not being diluted. Subsidies and one-time income from FSD (Full Self-Driving) have also decreased, which were previously "profit magic tools." In the current environment of increasing overall inflation, rising labor and raw material costs, and a gradually deflating consumer backdrop, companies are earning less than last year while spending more, which is a normal phenomenon and a common issue among all automakers. Recently, Mercedes-Benz also laid off a significant portion of its employees in China, which is a desperate measure to recover.

📝 In this conference call, I still believe in Tesla's future highlights:

1️⃣ Energy storage business explosion: Revenue of $3.42 billion, up 44% year-on-year, with profit margins reaching an all-time high. This segment is indeed strong and has boosted free cash flow, reaching a historical high of $3.99 billion.

2️⃣ #AI, #Robotaxi, and the Optimus humanoid robot: Musk painted a big picture in the conference call, stating that Robotaxi services are already being tested in the Bay Area. Additionally, the Optimus humanoid robot is expected to be publicly unveiled and enter small-scale production by 2026.

Although these are just "future stories" without specific numbers, no KPIs, no promotion plans, and no economic models. For many Tesla investors, we are essentially investing in Musk himself. It can be said that investing in Tesla is not about trading "valuation anchors," but rather a firm belief in the revolutionary changes brought by Musk, which is a kind of steadfast faith in an "imagination anchor."

❄️ The external environment adds to the difficulties, which may be the biggest hidden risk.

Overall, I am full of confidence and future expectations for Tesla, but the current external environment and uncertainties such as the China-U.S. tariff friction have raised market concerns. U.S. stock indices are mixed, and market risk appetite has dropped to a freezing point. Coupled with the overall "devaluation" of the #AI and electric vehicle sectors, Tesla, as a "high valuation + high story" company, has become a focal point of market contradictions. Therefore, a short-term correction is inevitable, but once it returns to a reasonable price, it is expected to break through again.

I believe this drop is a "triple kill": on the event level: revenue exceeded expectations but the profit gap was too large, leading to a significant market discrepancy. On the macro level: the overall market is weakening, and risk appetite is declining. On the governance level: Musk's compensation case and future dilution risks make institutions hesitant to take large positions.

However, this Tesla conference call conveyed a clear message: "We are not a car company; we are an #AI + robotics company." So the imagination space needs to be expanded and looked at from a longer-term perspective.

But the awkward issue is that #AI needs to make money, which is still a long way off, and the rollout of robots will take time. Meanwhile, the automotive business is losing profit. Therefore, the stock price reflects not the current story but the awkward reality of short-term cash flow. But as a Tesla investor, I believe that all the bold claims Musk has made can be realized. This is a summary of his past successful bets, and he has basically succeeded every time, so Tesla's correction is also an excellent buying opportunity! 🧐

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