We don't need to guess everything right; we just need to get the certain things right and grasp the certain trends.

In the tech circles overseas over the past two weeks, the AI bubble has become the hottest topic. The related debates are intense and have directly led to a 5% overall decline in the total market capitalization of Nasdaq, with leading AI companies like Nvidia, Meta, and Oracle seeing a drop of 10-30% in their market values. From the tech world to the financial sector, many celebrities have expressed their views, with sharply opposing opinions and heated debates. Meanwhile, the crypto market has also seen continuous declines since October 11, with the entire industry anxiously debating whether the market has entered a bear phase.

I can't help but be asked by some friends about my views on the AI bubble theory and the crypto bull-bear market. To be honest, I don't know, and I don't really care. Whether it's AI or crypto, there are indeed many uncertainties. Will large model technology lead to AGI? Are AI companies extending depreciation periods to inflate profits? Are a large number of GPUs sitting idle and gathering dust? When will liquidity in the crypto market recover? These issues are certainly important for figures like Trump, Jensen Huang, Musk, and Altman, but for ordinary people like me, it's not necessary to solve these problems to make the right choices. Debates that are crucial for industry giants may just be noise for us. Focusing too much on this noise can blind us to certain opportunities.

In the modern media environment, a few elites control the agenda and hijack the public's attention. Ordinary people struggle in real life, often spending a lot of energy worrying about issues that are not directly related to them, while neglecting to face the problems that truly matter to them. You have to work very hard to break free from the illusion that you are a capital giant or an industry leader, to always be aware that their power and wealth are not ours, and their problems are not ours. Spending your attention on debates set by the elites actually leads to losing your mental clarity in their world, causing you to miss out on real opportunities in your life.

Most people over forty have their own stories of missing the internet boom. I often think back to the early 2000s and wonder why I and many around me missed the best opportunity to join the internet. In hindsight, as early as 2002 or 2003, the success of the internet was already a foregone conclusion: the rapid growth of internet users, the increasing average online time, and the swift migration of information access and commercial transactions. What clearer signal could there be? What trend could be more certain than the success of the internet? Why didn't we think to dive in wholeheartedly?

In fact, those of us who fully experienced that period know that most people did not fail to see such signals; rather, they hesitated, caught up in wave after wave of debates. At first, we debated whether the internet had a profitable model, and when Google established an advertising profit model, we debated whether this model had enough room for growth. When e-commerce was just starting, we debated whether payment and return issues would be a permanent deadlock for Chinese e-commerce. As online gaming rose, we debated whether youth addiction to games would ruin the future of the country. With the emergence of social media and online payments, we debated when the government would decisively step in to clear the field. When Bitcoin was created, we debated whether Satoshi Nakamoto was the CIA or whether Li Xiaolai was just boasting. Throughout, these topics successfully captured our attention, leading us to identify with roles in internet industry associations, youth work committees, bank presidents, and even propaganda and law enforcement departments, leaving us indecisive and blind to the obvious certainty of the internet's success, lost in a sea of unimportant uncertainties.

Unfortunately, it is said that the historical records of the Chinese internet are being erased at a record pace. I suspect that even if today's historians sent AI to do archaeology, they wouldn't realize how much energy and opportunity cost the onlookers spent debating others' issues back then. I have seen many accounts of internet history, which mostly focus on the successful, describing them as visionary, intelligent, resilient, and insightful, but hardly anyone summarizes the lessons of "ordinary people." So while the memories of our generation are still fresh, I want to summarize this lesson: others' problems may not be your problems, others' signals may be your noise, and you should not get caught up in debates that do not belong to you; just observe the facts and grasp the certain, overall trends based on those facts. For ordinary people, that is often enough.

The frenzy over AI on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley today is because almost all credit resources in the U.S. are now directed towards AI, and nearly all economic growth comes from AI investments. It is also because there are some concerning signals in the revenue data and financial behaviors of the AI industry. Is this a problem? Yes, it is. Whose problem is it? It is Wall Street's and Silicon Valley's problem; it may also be the White House's and the Federal Reserve's problem, and possibly the problem of many Asian funds and family offices, but it is likely not your problem. You are not Jensen Huang, not Altman, not the big short seller Michael Burry, nor Larry Ellison's Chinese brother-in-law; whether AI has a bubble is not something you need to worry about.

What should you care about? Although we don't know if large models are the path to AGI, AI's capabilities are already very strong. In fact, the capabilities that AI currently possesses have not been fully applied and mobilized, and the bottleneck mainly lies with people. A new group of "AI super users" is emerging, who can skillfully combine various AI tools to dominate their fields, while are you still just treating AI as a search replacement? Recently, many products in various AI sub-sectors have generated quite good actual revenue, and AI giants need to continuously drive user growth and usage to persuade capital to keep supporting them, which will more actively incentivize developers of specific applications. Can you create something in your area of expertise?

In the blockchain field, although the market has become increasingly speculative over the years, amidst the noise, blockchain infrastructure has basically resolved the performance bottlenecks of transaction processing, sufficient to support low-latency, high-performance, large-scale on-chain applications. As the largest blockchain application, the scale of stablecoins continues to grow, and the application areas are constantly expanding. More importantly, from Wall Street to Hong Kong, an increasing number of traditional financial assets—stocks, equity, bonds, precious metals, foreign exchange, derivatives—are all moving on-chain. This means that the entire finance sector will migrate to blockchain. So what is my real question? It is not the short-term price fluctuations of Bitcoin, nor when the liquidity of the crypto market will recover after its collapse, nor whether Trump still has enough authority to push for crypto legislation, but rather facing such a clear future scenario: in three to five years, people will be able to use stablecoins to invest in various assets around the world on the blockchain, and use AI as their investment advisor. As long as there is the corresponding knowledge and skills, and proficiency in the relevant tools, ordinary people can grow alongside the fastest companies and industries in the world, with no limitations to hold you back. In this new world, do I have enough knowledge and skills? Can I help more people escape the fate of being slaughtered by chaos and inflation? What opportunities do I have to build valuable products and services?

I will constantly remind myself that these are the real issues I should care about.

I also admit that the world is becoming increasingly chaotic, with many distressing and worrying problems. Many things that could have been approached with long-term thinking and planning have now lost their certainty. Whether we like it or not, we are descending the levels of Maslow's hierarchy of needs, moving from an era of pursuing success and self-actualization to an era where many people are struggling just to survive with dignity. These are probably facts. Many times we feel that instead of increasing anxiety, it might be better to watch a few short videos for some fun. But after the dopamine rush, we still have to return to face real life. I do not mean to comfort everyone by saying that the world will get better. But I also believe that we do not need to guess everything right; we just need to get the certain things right and grasp the certain trends. Compared to wasting energy in hesitation and fear, and getting lost in topics set by others, the situation will always be a bit better.

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