Master Discusses Hot Topics:

The market's sentiment has really flipped dramatically these past two days. On Monday, the atmosphere was so lifeless, basically being rubbed into the ground by the shadow of Japan's interest rate hike. Don't talk to me about how there might not be a rate hike in December; no one believes that anymore.

Japan's bond yields are right there, it's a blatant actual interest rate hike. That's why the market was so sluggish on Tuesday during the day; the news of halting the balance sheet reduction didn't even get a reaction. I was completely baffled at that moment, what is going on with this market?

As a result, when the U.S. stock market opened in the evening, it shot up dramatically, and of course, Bitcoin had to follow suit. Plus, the Federal Reserve secretly added $13.5 billion in liquidity during the day, which can be seen as pouring a bit of lubricant into the gears. But don't take it too seriously; this is not easing.

The current liquidity is in a semi-damaged state, far from the kind of wild cash flow surge. And to put it bluntly, this current rise is just being propped up by sentiment, treating the end of balance sheet reduction as a good news to speculate on first. Whether the logic can hold is another matter; everyone just rushed in first and will talk later.

But if you ask me, I still see this wave as a rebound, not a trend reversal. For a complete reversal, we are missing one crucial element, which is the cancellation of SLR. Once this is announced, it basically signals that the Federal Reserve is ready to open the floodgates.

Additionally, over on the Trump side, things are also not quiet. Yesterday, it was directly stated that there is only one candidate left for the Federal Reserve Chair, most likely Harker. If this knife falls, market expectations will be re-priced. The capital's sense of smell is sharper than a dog's; it's completely reasonable to bet on easing in advance.

Well, but here comes the problem. This is all driven by sentiment, and before real cash liquidity comes pouring in, how long can this rebound last? Until expectations are fulfilled, everyone is just playing predictions.

Back to the market, let's first look at the more core data. That is the chip structure of Bitcoin above 100K; currently, there are about 4.8 million Bitcoins still held above 100K. Do you think this is something retail investors can do? Normal retail investors would have been shaken out by such recent volatility.

Bitcoin first broke below 100K on November 4, when there were 5.67 million Bitcoins stacked above 100K. As a result, after this brutal drop, only 870,000 were scared into selling. The remaining 85% of the chips are as steady as a rock, not budging an inch. Think about it, really think about it…

This kind of calmness, this kind of hard resistance, this kind of nonchalance, can ordinary people achieve that? Don't kid yourself; this is clearly the patient layout of big funds. These people didn't sell during the big drop at 74K, and now a 30% pullback is just a mosquito bite to them.

Because this bull market is not led by retail investors; it's the big Americans, corporations, ETFs, and institutions that are propping up the market. Their holding periods are not a few days or weeks, but months or years. As long as they can hold on, the market won't disappear.

This also means one thing: as long as these diamond hands don't collapse, and there is no panic selling, it's hard to see that kind of cliff-like waterfall drop. Looking at the charts, there was a V-shaped counterattack from yesterday to this morning, with at least a net inflow of over a billion dollars.

Capital wants to make money; it can't just push the price up and then turn around and smash it down, that would be slapping its own face, right? So at least in the short term, it won't immediately reverse downwards. As long as it holds above 83.4K, there’s no problem; 80.6K is the recent bottom, and generally, the first touch of such a bottom won't break directly.

Now the 4-hour structure has already pressed against a resistance zone once; if it presses again, we need to watch 93.4K. There are two possibilities: one is to form a standard double bottom and directly break through the neckline, which would be comfortable for the market. The second is to form a converging triangle, pulling back near 93.4K, but as long as it doesn't break 83.7K, it still leans bullish.

Ethereum's distribution structure is basically complete, and it is currently in a period of oscillation and rebound. It has already dipped below 2850 twice and then recovered; this position is quite important. As long as it breaks through 3060, moving towards 3230 wouldn't be surprising, and further up would be those old resistance levels at 3660.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Level Reference:

Second Resistance Level: 96300

First Resistance Level: 93200

Support Level Reference:

First Support Level: 90400

Second Support Level: 88800

Currently, the key support for Bitcoin is in the range of the 120MA and 90.4K, which is within the normal pullback and reasonable adjustment range. The second resistance is at 88.8K, 20MA, and 60MA; if it breaks here, the bearish trend will return.

The first resistance is at 93.2K; if it breaks through here, the upper descending trend line will be retested, and there is hope for a trend reversal attempt. The current price is stabilizing near the center; as long as these key supports hold, the bullish structure remains intact.

The RSI index is at 63, not yet officially entering overbought territory, but already close to the edge. Usually, before the RSI enters overbought, there will be another short surge. So this wave of rise can be expected to push higher in one go, followed by a healthy pullback, which is a typical setup for waiting to ambush on the pullback.

Today, we can focus on the first support at 90.4K; if it holds, it is a reasonable adjustment and also a low-risk entry area in the short term. Since it has made a V recovery, the strength and shape of the upcoming adjustment will be key.

Once it breaks through the first resistance at 93.2K, the probability of retesting the descending trend line will greatly increase. Only after a true breakthrough and stabilization can the market officially enter a trend reversal expectation. 93K is the most critical resistance level today; whether it can hold will determine the short-term rhythm.

12.3 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: 90400 with small stop loss, light position long, Target: 92000

Short Entry Reference: 93200-94000 range short, Target: 92000-90400

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making hasty conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch the top and bottom every time," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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