Author: Liu Kaiwen

At 2 AM local time on Saturday in Venezuela, while President Nicolás Maduro was still immersed in the dreams of the New Year holiday, a U.S. special forces raid ended the battle within an hour and took Maduro onto a transport plane bound for the United States.

This shocking "lightning war" seemed to come without warning, but on the leading prediction market platform Polymarket, it appeared to have already become a cash-out tool for several insiders even before the action took place.

3 Pentagon Employees "Betting While Working Overtime"

Hours before the operation began, three new wallets with no historical records suddenly started making wild bets on the low-probability market "Maduro will lose power before January 31, 2026" with "yes."

At this time, the mainstream view in the market still believed that Trump would adopt a moderate siege strategy to force Maduro to compromise, with the probability of "yes" being only 5%. However, as Maduro was taken onto the plane, these three mysterious accounts instantly raked in over $500,000 in profits.

It was only afterward that people began to redefine the actions of the three who bought in just hours before the airstrike: only those with reliable intelligence could execute such a precise strike using new accounts within such a narrow time window.

The three insiders were:

0xa72db1749e9ac2379d49a3c12708325ed17febd4, profit $74,982.34;

0x6baf05d193692bb208d616709e27442c910a94c5, profit $145,619.92;

0x31a56e9e690c621ed21de08cb559e9524cdb8ed9, profit $409,882.03.

But the news from Polymarket goes beyond this.

Maduro's "Flight Delay": The U.S. Action Was Supposed to Take Place 4 Days Earlier

There are two very representative addresses that, although they profited from this action, ended up losing a significant amount of money because they received the news too early.

Like the three insiders mentioned above, Chiwawas also made a precise bet of $10,000 just 3 hours before the airstrike, resulting in a profit of over $70,000.

However, Chiwawas had actually placed a heavy bet of nearly $40,000 on "Maduro will lose power in 2025" as early as the evening of December 26.

Assuming he had insider information, he must have received accurate news before placing such a heavy bet, but unfortunately, the arrest operation that was supposed to take place on December 29 was canceled due to weather conditions. Thunderstorm clouds in the Caribbean forced the U.S. military to reconsider for tactical safety reasons.

This was confirmed in Trump's latest operational speech: "The airstrike against Maduro was originally scheduled to be executed 4 days ago (from the night of December 29 to the early morning of December 30, 2025)."

Therefore, since the market settled as "no" on the last day of 2025, this transaction led to his account facing significant losses with the arrival of 2026.

If everything had developed according to Chiwawas's script, his account should have settled at a staggering return of $750,000 on December 30.

Unfortunately, the weather did not cooperate; the thunderstorm clouds at sea not only disrupted the U.S. military's planned airstrike but also shattered Chiwawas's dream of making a fortune using military intelligence during the Christmas holiday.

Fortunately, when he learned that the U.S. military would restart operations at midnight on January 3, he regained his spirits and began to recharge and bet again. Although this final attempt could not make up for the missed $750,000, it ultimately brought his total account profit back into the positive, reaching $34,000.

Chiwawas Address: 0x168b100d7a6620a2f49a455344c2c006eaf1714b

In addition to Chiwawas, another account also missed out on huge profits due to the weather. Since late last month, he had bet about $20,000 on several related markets "Military conflict between the U.S. and Venezuela will occur this year" and "Nothing happens: national leader loses power," firmly believing that a conflict would occur in the remaining days of 2025 and that Maduro would fall as a result.

Had it not been for the weather, he should have welcomed a massive profit of $1.04 million on the 30th.

Like Chiwawas, after suffering significant losses, he placed a bet of "U.S.-Venezuela conflict will occur before January 15, 2026" just 3 hours before the airstrike, resulting in a profit of over $40,000.

Conclusion

Just 3 days into 2026, we have already seen that Polymarket is not just a prediction platform, but an automatic cash machine for individuals in various industries who possess information advantages, utilizing "knowledge gaps" and "time gaps" to cash out wildly.

As Polymarket's visibility continues to rise, who knows what magical insider stories will unfold here this year?

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