Korea's foreign exchange market opens overnight: The moment of the Korean won's gamble

CN
1 day ago

In July 2026, the South Korean Ministry of Finance plans to officially push the foreign exchange market into a 24-hour trading era. This means that the previously limited trading window of about 6.5 hours per day for the USD/KRW exchange rate will be completely rewritten, allowing Seoul's foreign exchange market to seamlessly connect with global time zones for the first time. From "brief opening hours" to "sleepless nights," South Korea is clearly accelerating its pace of financial opening and is placing itself at a new crossroads: will this decision become the key strike that knocks on the door of developed markets, or will it open a gamble filled with risks and opportunities amid regulatory pressures and exchange rate fluctuations?

From 6 Hours to 24 Hours: Seoul's Timeline Extended

If we place the South Korean foreign exchange market within the coordinates of major global economies, the previous timeline of "only open for about 6.5 hours" appears particularly short. About two years ago, around 2024, the USD/KRW market had only a concentrated trading window during the daytime, a setup that reflected both considerations for preventing short-term capital flows and the inertia of South Korea's long-standing foreign exchange control mindset. The limited trading hours somewhat reduced intraday noise and speculative shocks, but also left businesses and institutions facing exposure and settlement mismatches during non-trading hours.

Now, the Ministry of Finance has provided a clearer timetable: starting in July 2026, the foreign exchange market will no longer be just a "partially open" market during Seoul's working hours, but will transition to 24-hour continuous trading. The regulatory authorities are attempting to reconnect the previously "disconnected" Asian, European, and American time zones through institutional arrangements, allowing the Korean won to be continuously priced and hedged during trading days in major global financial centers. This shift not only extends operating hours but also means pushing the won from a typical "daytime currency" into an all-weather market that must face global liquidity shocks and cross-time zone trading behaviors.

For market makers, banks, and multinational corporations, the new time structure will bring a series of operational changes. In the past, large orders, mergers, or financing activities occurring in the European and American time zones often had to wait until Seoul opened to complete hedging and settlement in the local currency market, during which price fluctuations could only be passively endured. After the implementation of 24-hour trading, risk management can be more closely aligned with the timing of events, alleviating settlement time mismatches, and multinational companies can directly complete hedging and funding arrangements in the won market during time periods that are more in sync with their business rhythms. Meanwhile, market makers and banks will also need to adapt to longer quoting and risk management cycles, and how to maintain liquidity and spread stability across different global time zones will become a new professional challenge.

The Battle for Developed Market Tickets: The Invisible Dialogue Between the Won and MSCI

South Korea's push for overnight trading in the foreign exchange market is not an isolated action but is closely linked to the roadmap for the internationalization of the won and the pursuit of developed market status. In the evaluation systems of international index providers like MSCI, the accessibility of capital markets, the convertibility of currencies, and the degree of free trading are key dimensions that determine whether a market can be considered a "developed market." Although South Korea has a considerable size and industrial foundation, its reservations regarding foreign exchange liberalization and market openness have long been seen as a shortcoming in its bid to join the ranks of developed markets.

The Ministry of Finance has explicitly stated that it will formulate a roadmap for the internationalization of the won and promote the growth of trading demand through cross-border payment settlements and overseas financing. In official statements, keywords like "cross-border payment" and "overseas financing" frequently appear, signaling a policy intention to the outside world: South Korea hopes to allow the won to no longer be limited to domestic trade and investment financing but to take on more pricing and settlement functions at regional and even global levels. The Deputy Minister of Finance further emphasized the need to develop offshore won financing and to advance related reforms according to the MSCI inclusion roadmap, effectively writing "MSCI developed market assessment" into the discourse, acknowledging that this is a long-term game that needs to align with international rating and index rules.

Within this framework, the 24-hour foreign exchange trading mechanism and the new offshore won system become two main lines connecting practical operations with symbolic significance. On one hand, they are essential actions to strive for "ratings," responding to market core concerns about tradability and hedging; on the other hand, they are also used by South Korea to reshape its financial brand, hoping to transition from an "export manufacturing powerhouse" to a comprehensive economy with a mature and open capital market. Whether it can truly cross the threshold of developed markets will still depend on the coherence and depth of subsequent reforms, but at least symbolically, South Korea has chosen to engage with global rules through its exchange rate system and market openness.

The Offshore Won Emerges: The Time Zone Game with Tokyo and Hong Kong

Beyond 24-hour trading, the planned "new offshore won trading system" is another "invisible hand" in this round of reforms. Its goal is not simply to replicate the onshore market but to benchmark against mature models like the offshore dollar in London and the offshore renminbi in Hong Kong, constructing a set of won ecosystem that can conduct financing, trading, and settlement abroad. The existence of the offshore system provides investors with a more flexible legal and tax environment while also securing an independent stage for local currency assets in global capital allocation.

Geographically and in terms of time zones, Seoul is located in the core area of the Asian foreign exchange map but has long had limited presence in the international foreign exchange trading landscape. Tokyo, Singapore, and Hong Kong occupy important positions in yen, multi-currency trading in the Asia-Pacific, and regional renminbi and dollar trading. If Seoul can form a mature offshore won system, complemented by 24-hour trading, it will engage in a game of both complementarity and competition with these financial centers in terms of time and products. For institutions needing to complete multi-currency hedging and fund allocation in the Asia-Pacific time zone, Seoul's all-weather won quotes may become a new option connecting the Northeast Asian supply chain with global finance.

A longer-term consideration is that through the offshore won and overnight trading mechanism, South Korea hopes to attract more overseas institutions and regional enterprises to use the won as a pricing and settlement currency for part of their business. For example, trade chains formed around South Korean domestic enterprises and regional transactions related to Northeast Asian energy, technology, and manufacturing may, when conditions mature, migrate some settlements from third-party currencies to the won. If Seoul can provide sufficient attractiveness in institutional design and market depth, the structure of capital flows may slowly reshape, with some pricing and hedging activities that previously took place in Tokyo, Singapore, or Hong Kong potentially starting to occur in the Korean time zone and in won-denominated markets.

The Cost of Regulatory Easing: The Boundaries of Volatility and Arbitrage

To understand South Korea's current choice to significantly ease foreign exchange regulation, one must return to the historical logic of its long-standing foreign exchange controls and trading time restrictions. As an economy highly dependent on external factors and cautiously open to financial markets, South Korea has always been wary of the severe shocks that short-term capital flows can bring to its currency exchange rate and financial system. Limited trading hours, restrictions on the convertibility of the local currency, and controls on certain capital account flows are all institutional defenses accumulated after multiple rounds of global financial turmoil. They have somewhat mitigated external shocks but have also locked in the potential for market depth and freedom to improve.

Pushing the foreign exchange market toward 24-hour overnight trading means that these historically formed "buffers" will be thinned. From a regulatory perspective, all-weather trading may amplify exchange rate volatility during sudden events, increase the space for cross-time zone arbitrage operations, and cause short-term risks to be directly reflected in the won's price in a shorter time frame. Trading behaviors in different regions under the all-weather quoting system may overlap, potentially transforming what was originally concentrated in Seoul's daytime price discovery into a continuous curve spanning Asia, Europe, and the Americas. How to identify malicious speculation, abnormal flows, and cross-border leverage behaviors within this curve will become a new challenge for regulators.

In this context, regulatory authorities are likely to attempt to build a new "firewall" through macro-prudential management, information disclosure, and liquidity support mechanisms. For example, strengthening monitoring and stress testing of large cross-border capital flows, requiring key participating institutions to enhance foreign exchange risk management and capital buffer capabilities, and providing conditional liquidity support when necessary to prevent liquidity from suddenly drying up and evolving into systemic risk. At the same time, real-time disclosure of trading data and post-event reviews will also become more important to identify whether there are complex arbitrage and manipulation behaviors taking advantage of time differences and regulatory gaps. The balance between openness and stability will no longer rely on simply "shortening trading hours" but will shift toward a more refined and technical regulatory framework.

As Crypto Trading Volume Declines: South Korea Chooses to Bet on Traditional Forex

In the global asset allocation landscape, the introduction of 24-hour trading for the won coincides with another market curve entering a cooling phase. According to data disclosed from a single source, the total trading volume of global centralized trading platforms dropped by about 35% from previous highs in December 2025. This figure itself still requires validation from more channels, but at least provides a reference background clue: some previously highly active risk asset trades are cooling down, and the overall market risk appetite is in decline. Since this data comes from a single source and has not yet been cross-verified by multiple parties, it is more suitable as a reference for sentiment and trends rather than an accurate quantitative basis.

Compared to the inherent 24-hour uninterrupted trading nature of crypto assets, the extension of trading hours in the traditional foreign exchange market seems like a technical upgrade "to align with crypto," but it reflects a redistribution of global liquidity preferences. When trading of certain high-volatility, high-leverage assets shrinks, capital begins to seek new docking and arbitrage spaces between different markets. An increasingly open foreign exchange market with clearer rules often attracts more attention. South Korea's choice to push the won market toward all-weather trading at this moment is, to some extent, an attempt to use a more institutionally secure and fiat-backed foreign exchange platform to absorb some of the global capital retreating from high-risk areas, providing these funds with new hedging, allocation, and settlement venues.

This narrative does not imply that capital will simply flow directly from crypto assets to the won, but points to a structural migration: as the market shifts from extreme risk appetite to a relatively moderate one, some cross-time zone trading strategies that were originally active in the 24-hour crypto market may partially migrate to the more regulated and standardized foreign exchange market. What Seoul is betting on is this "structural opportunity" in the global risk appetite repricing—enhancing its attractiveness to both incremental and existing capital through institutional openness while others are retracting leverage.

The Long Night Trial of the Won: A Long-Term Game About Identity

In summary, the 24-hour foreign exchange opening, the construction of the offshore won, and the pursuit of developed market status together form the grand chess game of South Korea's current financial reform. Extending trading hours creates the technical and institutional foundation for the won to access the global all-weather liquidity network; the new offshore system provides local currency assets with more flexible financing and trading space abroad; and the roadmap surrounding international evaluation systems like MSCI incorporates these operational measures into a broader national identity narrative—South Korea hopes to complete the leap from "regional backbone" to "participant in developed financial markets" through the opening of its local currency and capital markets.

However, whether this gamble can fulfill expectations does not depend on a single announcement at a specific point in time, but on the quality of the implementation of regulatory details, the robustness of technical systems, and the level of participation from global institutions in the coming years. How the accompanying macro-prudential framework is designed, whether market intermediaries can adapt to more complex risk management requirements, and whether international investors are willing to make long-term commitments in the new won ecosystem—these variables will profoundly affect policy outcomes. Due to uncertainties and data limitations, it is currently impossible to provide specific predictions on the scale of capital inflows, the increase in foreign holdings, or the future trajectory of the won's exchange rate, nor is it feasible to quantitatively assess its new position in the global monetary system.

What is certain is that as the foreign exchange market gradually moves toward overnight trading and the offshore won system takes shape, the landscape of currency and capital flows in the Asia-Pacific is quietly being redrawn. If Seoul can maintain a bottom line between openness and stability, accommodating a higher level of volatility and cross-border capital activities without losing control, then future discussions about Asian financial centers and regional currencies will likely have to include a new "Korean coordinate." The won will also undergo continuous scrutiny of its value, resilience, and institutional credibility in the longer trading night ahead.

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