On February 1st, in the East 8 Time Zone, the Solana ecosystem aggregator Jupiter announced the integration of the prediction market protocol Polymarket into its app, almost coinciding with the data disclosure of a hacker attack in January 2026: security company PeckShield reported that there were 16 attack incidents in January, resulting in a total loss of approximately $86.01 million. On one hand, the Solana ecosystem continues to expand and accelerate its narrative, while on the other hand, on-chain security losses remain high. This stark contrast constitutes the main contradiction in the current crypto world: under the dual pressure of innovation and risk, which side will funds and sentiment ultimately stand on?
Jupiter's Ambition and Strategy in Betting on the Prediction Market
● Aggregator Hub Role: Jupiter is a highly influential trading aggregator within the Solana ecosystem, routing various transactions and asset flows for users, essentially serving as an important entry point for funds into and out of Solana. The official announcement to directly integrate Polymarket into the Jupiter App means that the relatively "vertical" prediction market scenario will be embedded into a frequently used aggregation interface, transforming the prediction market from a marginal function into a permanent option on the user asset operation path.
● First Entry into Solana: According to Jupiter's official statement, "Polymarket will enter Solana for the first time through Jupiter," which is not just a marketing slogan but indicates the reconstruction logic of traffic entry: users can access Polymarket-related markets on the Solana side without additional cross-chain or ecosystem switching. For Polymarket, this is equivalent to getting on the thickest "highway" on Solana; for Jupiter and the Solana ecosystem, it means inserting a new product module with high topicality and participation into their own traffic pool.
● Narrative and Diversification Amplifier: The prediction market is inherently good at capturing macro events and sentiment, and its integration with Jupiter will further enrich the application landscape of the Solana ecosystem, expanding narratives from DeFi and GameFi to more topical themes like "information trading" and "event betting." Funds can complete asset exchanges and liquidity provision on the same interface, and then conveniently participate in hot predictions, forming a longer value chain. This not only enhances the depth of Solana's story but also introduces new attention entry points and imaginative revenue structures for the ecosystem.
16 Attacks Consuming $86.01 Million, Security Curve Still High
● Scale and Frequency of Losses: The attack data released by PeckShield for January 2026 poured cold water on this wave of innovation—16 hacker incidents were recorded in a single month, with total losses of approximately $86.01 million. Although the briefing did not break down the specific projects and technical details of these attacks, from the perspective of amount and number of incidents, on-chain fund leakage remains one of the systemic risks, far from entering a "negligible" scale.
● Slight Year-on-Year Decrease, Month-on-Month Increase: In terms of trends, the loss scale in January 2026 decreased by about 1.42% compared to January 2025, but increased by about 13.25% compared to December 2025. This set of data sends a rather complex signal: on one hand, the long-term view seems to show slight improvement in industry security; on the other hand, short-term risk pressure has instead risen, indicating that attackers have not retreated but are continuously adjusting their strategies based on market fund density and hot rhythms. "Slight improvement but still high risk" has become a realistic annotation of the current security situation.
● Dual Pressure of Confidence and Risk Control: Even without specific attack type breakdowns, the scale of $86.01 million itself is enough to exert hard pressure on investor confidence and project teams' risk control strategies. Retail investors are more inclined to shorten their holding periods and increase sensitivity to "whether contracts are audited" and "whether assets are custodial," while teams, when innovating products and integrating across ecosystems, must also push forward security budgets and audit cycles, sacrificing some iteration speed for the sake of survival certainty.
Collision of Innovative Narratives and Security Shadows: The Struggle of Growth and Harvesting
● Pull of Dual Narratives: On one side, Jupiter is adjusting to integrate Polymarket, adding the new story of "prediction markets" to the Solana ecosystem; on the other side, PeckShield has disclosed 16 attacks and nearly $86.01 million in losses. This parallel timeline presents a clear dual structure in industry narratives: innovation is accelerating, but the baseline of security events has not significantly decreased, forcing capital to constantly weigh between "chasing new stories" and "preventing old risks," unable to be unidirectionally optimistic.
● Incremental Users and Attack Surfaces: New applications like prediction markets naturally carry high participation and high circulating funds. While they gain more users and TVL through integrations like Jupiter, they also objectively expand the potential attack surface: contracts become more complex, oracle dependencies increase, and interfaces become more diverse. For attackers, the new narrative is not merely a risk but a new "hunting ground"; the more participants there are and the more concentrated the funds, the more attractive the potential single-attack returns, necessitating a simultaneous increase in security requirements.
● Security as a Core Requirement Under Performance Sprint: Public chains like Solana, which focus on high performance and rich scenarios, while supporting complex applications through low fees and high throughput, are also forced to face a reality: performance and diversity are not substitutes for security. To support cross-scenario integrations like Jupiter+Polymarket, the underlying infrastructure must invest more effort in audit standards, contract permission management, oracle governance, and risk control monitoring; otherwise, "high performance" may simply mean that funds run faster before incidents occur.
Overlapping Pessimistic Signals: A Cold Wind from Bitcoin to On-Chain Applications
● Price Warnings from Technicians: At the macro market level, veteran trader Peter Brandt recently assessed that there is a possibility for Bitcoin's price to fall back to around $58,000, a view widely quoted by several Chinese media outlets. Regardless of whether one fully agrees with his technical analysis, this expectation of "a further step down" itself reinforces the market's psychological preparation for a broader market correction and weakens the willingness of funds to aggressively bet on marginal tracks.
● Cautious Atmosphere on the Funding Side: Ki Young Ju, CEO of on-chain data company CryptoQuant, pointed out from the perspective of fund flows that the current market is experiencing "continued selling pressure and a lack of new capital inflows." This means that incremental funds have not significantly taken over, and existing funds are more likely to cash out or reduce positions at high levels. In such an environment, even if applications like Jupiter+Polymarket have narrative appeal, institutions and larger funds are more likely to adopt a "wait and see" strategy, reducing their marginal allocation to risk assets.
● Resonance of Security Events and Pessimistic Expectations: When frequent security losses coincide with mainstream market correction expectations, the choice of funding paths often tends to be conservative: on one hand, there is a preference for safe positions in mainstream assets like Bitcoin and leading public chains; on the other hand, enthusiasm for new public chain projects, complex DeFi protocols, and high-leverage plays has noticeably cooled. Events like Jupiter integrating Polymarket may carry more significance in terms of "attention" and "product experimentation" in the short term, rather than immediately triggering a funding frenzy.
Finding the Next Opportunity Between Greed and Fear
In the short term, Jupiter's integration of Polymarket represents the Solana ecosystem's continued extension towards diversification and narrative development at the application level; while PeckShield's report of 16 attacks and approximately $86.01 million in losses serves as a reminder to all participants: the rapidly expanding track is still riddled with security pitfalls. Innovation and risk are not two parallel lines, but rather a dual coordinate system that every decision must face simultaneously.
In the coming period, ongoing security events, weak incremental funds, and a cautious sentiment are likely to suppress the pace of valuation expansion, causing many projects' "story premiums" to be discounted. However, from a longer-term perspective, those who can truly catch up on security, compliance, and risk control systems will have a better chance of mastering higher pricing power and narrative authority in the next bull market cycle. For public chains, protocols, and applications, security will no longer be just a slogan in compliance documents, but a core threshold for whether they can support large-scale funds and institutional participation.
If new narratives like prediction markets can deeply integrate with more mature audit systems, real-time risk control, and transparent governance models under the support of traffic hubs like Jupiter, they are expected to upgrade from "fun toys" to one of the key infrastructures for capital allocation in the next cycle. Truly smart capital will seek out those innovative directions that have already internalized security as a fundamental skill but have not yet been fully reflected in valuations during fear-dominated phases.
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