Due to the close correlation between Coinbase’s BTC balance and ETF net inflow/outflow, I will pay closer attention to Binance’s data situation as a more accurate observation of real demand (non-ETF) in the short term.

From Figure 1, we can see two distinct periods of balance increase between 10/21 - 11/22 in 2025 and 1/15 - 2/20 in 2026, which correspond to two significant price declines in BTC. After November 22, 2025, the balance decreased by 34,145 BTC, while the BTC price stabilized, shifting from a rapid decline to a consolidation + weak rebound.

Figure 1: BTC Balance on Binance Exchange

This corresponds closely to the current trend: from February 20, 2026, Binance’s BTC balance has decreased by 25,135 BTC. This period coincides with military conflicts between the US and Iran, during which BTC prices have remained relatively stable, with neither a significant drop nor a significant increase.

Do these BTC transfers out of Binance represent real demand? I personally believe the answer is “yes” or rather “most of them do”.

This is evident from the differences in net transfer volume categorized by scale. During this period, the primary large transfers did not come from individuals transferring over $10 million; rather, it was mainly from those transferring between $1 million - $10 million.

Figure 2: Net Transfer Volume on Binance Exchange (by scale)

We know that transfers from large holders often involve the actions of market makers and custodians, while those within the $1 million - $10 million range tend to reflect the accumulation behaviors of high-net-worth investors and individual whales.

At the same time, we can observe a very steep curve trend in the deviation of Binance’s BTC spot trading volume (CVD). CVD measures the net difference between trading volumes of buying and selling, particularly highlighting the difference in volume when buyers or sellers actively initiate trades.

Figure 3: BTC Spot Trading Volume Deviation (Binance)

The algorithm I use here is the 30-day average compared to the 90-day median deviation. A larger time scale can smooth out the disruptions caused by fluctuations on a particular day. Therefore, a steep curve indicates that the active buying in the spot market during this period has been significantly stronger.

This also somewhat confirms the aforementioned speculation that the current demand is more inclined toward real market demand rather than market maker behavior. Additionally, the recent retreat of the USDC/USDT exchange rate from high levels back to below 1 indicates stronger demand using USDT as purchasing power.

This also explains why, amid the ongoing US-Iran military conflict and employment data intensifying market concerns over economic stagnation/recession, BTC’s price has been able to remain stable overall.

Of course, these are only short-term data performances. If you take a broader perspective, you will find that at a larger scale, CVD is still overall in a downward phase, similar to the trend before May 2022.

Figure 4: BTC Spot Trading Volume Deviation (Binance)

After May 2022, the CVD curve began to diverge from the price, with lows increasingly higher, from significantly deviating from the 90-day median to approaching it, indicating that the trend of active buying has started to rebound, and demand is strongly returning. Of course, this will be a long transformation process.

Combining this with the cautious attitude displayed by on-chain whale entities toward macro uncertainty we have seen in recent days, my viewpoint is:

• In the short term: The phase-specific demand may keep BTC oscillating or weakly rebounding;

• Long-term observation: Overall still in a downward trend;

• Mid-term outlook: The current demand recovery is still in its early stage and may experience a longer structural recovery process.