Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Golem (@web3_golem)

While the market focuses on OpenClaw "small crayfish," BTC along with the entire crypto market has quietly risen for a week now.

According to OKX market data, BTC price has achieved eight consecutive days of gains from March 9 to March 16, successfully breaking past $74,000, peaking at $74,451; the altcoin market has also steadily risen, driven by the overall market, with ETH seeing over 12.5% growth in the past week, surpassing $2,300; SOL has increased by over 13% in the past week, and BNB has gained over 10%. According to Quantify Crypto data, among the top 200 tokens by market capitalization, only 31 tokens recorded weekly losses, while the remaining 169 tokens all recorded gains.

The crypto market's Fear and Greed Index shows that last week, the crypto fear index left the extreme fear zone, currently at 39, close to entering the neutral emotional zone. What factors have contributed to the improvement in market sentiment? What changes have occurred in crypto market liquidity? Is this round of price increase a temporary rebound or a confirmation of a potential bottom? Odaily Planet Daily will provide a brief analysis in this article.

The Strait of Hormuz may be reopened; the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week may remain "steady."

On a macro level, the primary reason for the crypto market's rebound is Trump's announcement on March 10 that the war with Iran is basically over, along with several measures to stabilize oil prices, such as considering waivers for some energy sanctions to counter the Middle Eastern gap and launching a large-scale oil reserve release plan with other countries.

As shown in the diagram below, on March 10, international oil prices even fell below $90 per barrel. There is a negative correlation between international oil prices and Bitcoin prices, with the basic logic being that when oil prices drop, the global inflation threat decreases, and market expectations suggest that global central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, are more likely to cut interest rates, leading to more liquidity in the market; thus, Bitcoin is expected to rebound in such scenarios.

Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil price trends over the past week

However, since March 10, oil prices have begun to rebound again, mainly due to Trump's fluctuating attitude toward the war, stating at times that the conflict could "end soon" and at other times asserting that he would hit Iran hard. He even commented that he himself does not know if he wants to reach an agreement with Iran. Meanwhile, Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed to close the Strait of Hormuz to hostile nations and their allies’ tankers and vessels.

Fortunately, Trump is still making efforts to prevent the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Axios on March 16,report, Trump is seeking to form a multinational coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and plans to announce it later this week. Four sources disclosed that if the navigation of tankers in the Persian Gulf remains obstructed, Trump is also considering seizing Iran's key oil transshipment point, Kharg Island. Kharg Island is located about 15 miles off the Iranian coast and accounts for about 90% of Iran's crude oil exports. Last Friday, Trump ordered strikes on military facilities on the island but did not target the oil facilities.

However, last week's rebound in oil prices did not lead to a decline in Bitcoin; instead, Bitcoin continued on an upward trend because the market has anticipated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision this week is likely to remain unchanged. According to Polymarket data, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the interest rate unchanged in March, on March 19, is close to 100%, while CME's "Fed Watch" also indicates that traders believe the probability of the Fed holding rates steady is as high as 99.1%.

Although the Iran conflict and rising oil prices pose a new inflation threat to the Federal Reserve, they still need time to carefully evaluate the potential impact of rising energy prices on consumer prices and economic growth, as well as whether the impact is temporary or will persist. Therefore, under the fog of war, "staying put" has become the best strategy.

Economists at Morgan Stanley continue to hold their prediction that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in both June and September. They believe that rate cuts may be delayed, which also means that the Fed may have to take more aggressive actions in the future.

However, investors should not hold blind optimism regarding interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, as the Fed can set interest rates but cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the key to policy decisions depends on how long this conflict will continue and what Trump's next actions will be.

James Egelhoff, Chief U.S. Economist at BNP Paribas Securities, stated that he will be watching to see if Federal Reserve officials change their wording during this week's interest rate meeting to indicate their plans to cut or raise rates within the next few months.

However, some analystsbelieve that the decline in oil prices while Bitcoin prices surge parabolically belongs more to a short-term technical adjustment and "should not be overinterpreted."

Crypto ETFs have achieved three consecutive weeks of net inflow; whales/institutions continue to buy.

Aside from the easing on the macro level, on the funding side, mainstream currencies like Bitcoin have also welcomed structural buying. On March 15, BlackRock's head of digital assets stated in a live broadcastthat while the only BlackRock Bitcoin ETF is in negative return among the top 20 global ETFs in terms of fund inflow, 90% of investors are in a "buy the dip" state, indicating that Bitcoin is undergoing significant turnover and long-term accumulation.

The data supports this claim; according to SoSoValue data, both Bitcoin spot ETFs and Ethereum spot ETFs have achieved three consecutive weeks of net inflow. The total net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs is approximately $2.119 billion, while for Ethereum spot ETFs, it is about $265 million.

Additionally, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded their first continuous five-day capital inflow since 2026 last week during the trading days (March 9 to March 13, Eastern Time), with a total inflow amount of $767 million. The last time a similar continuous increase occurred was in late November 2025 when the spot Bitcoin ETF achieved a net inflow for five consecutive days from November 25 to December 2, totaling $284.61 million.

Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum spot ETF net inflows over three consecutive weeks

On-chain whales and institutions also began accumulating last week, and aside from Bitcoin, whales still prefer to purchase ETH.

According to Arkhammonitoring, last week, a certain whale accumulated a total of $131.3 million worth of ETH and has distributed it across two wallets; a whale address starting with 0x743d(0x2d85) that had been dormant for six months bought 5,003 ETH at $2,179 each, valued at $10.9 million, notably this address had sold ETH at about $4,300 just six months ago.

Today, a whale continues to bottom fish for ETH; whale billΞ.eth (@0xbilly) bought 7,769 ETH at an average price of $2,248, with a total value of $17.46 million.

Has the Bitcoin bottom been confirmed, and has the upward channel been opened?

In light of this rebound, many analysts believe the bottom for Bitcoin has been confirmed.

Matrixport analysts believe that although current market sentiment around crypto is weak and many traders have shifted their attention to gold, oil, and other assets, Bitcoin has seen five consecutive months of decline, which is relatively rare in history, and similar patterns often occur before a phase rebound. At the same time, the total market cap of altcoins has fallen back to the range where several historical rebounds started, and as stablecoin funds re-enter the market, liquidity conditions continue to improve. Overall, these signals suggest that the probability of a crypto market rebound is gradually increasing.

On-chain analysis models also show that the current sell pressure on Bitcoin's network has dropped to a cyclical low, indicating that the market is in a clear accumulation phase. TheSell-side Risk Ratio is used to measure the profit realization activity level of market participants relative to the overall network cost basis. When the indicator exceeds the adaptive upper threshold, it triggers a distribution signal, indicating that sellers dominate the market; when the indicator falls below the lower threshold, it triggers an accumulation signal, meaning that sell pressure is extremely low.

Data shows that current sell pressure levels have dropped to about one-sixth of the cyclical average. Meanwhile, the 180-day rolling average Sell-side Risk Ratio has decreased from 3210 to 1913 over the past 60 days, a drop of 1297 points, and continues to drop at a rate of about 20 points per day. Historically, the range of 1500 to 2000 typically corresponds to sell pressure levels in the mid-2019 (BTC around $3,000–$6,000) and mid-2022-2023 bear market (BTC around $16,000–$20,000), but the current BTC price remains within the range of about $67,000 to $72,000, indicating a clear structural divergence.

This means that early low-price accumulators have completed substantial profit-taking in the range of $64,000 to $107,000, while those who have not sold in this range are choosing to hold on. A new distribution signal may only be triggered when the Bitcoin price stabilizes above $100,000 to $110,000 accompanied by large-scale profit-taking.

Consequently, many viewpoints believe that this market is not merely a short-term rebound but a new signal for an upward movement.

A macro model that combines U.S. 10-year Treasury yield with China's 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y×CN10Y) has recently produced an "extremely precise" bullish crossover signal. Historical data shows that this indicator had previously issued similar signals before bull markets in 2013, 2017, 2020-2021, and 2023, corresponding to Bitcoin price surges of approximately 8700%, 1900%, 600%, and over 350%. Analystsbelieve that if Bitcoin stabilizes and rebounds near the 200-week moving average, the price could reach $100,000 by around August. However, if it cannot break through the critical resistance level of $78,000, there remains a risk of creating a "bull trap."

Even now, some choose to ignore short-term fluctuations and focus on Bitcoin's long-term value, such as Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management. He stated that if Bitcoin can capture a larger share of the global value storage market currently dominated by gold and government bonds, Bitcoin could eventually reach $1 million each.

However, the $1 million target is more a simplified statement of Bitcoin's journey toward maturity as a major global currency asset than an exact prediction, and its outcome depends on long-term institutional adoption and the expansion of the value storage market.

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