Fear index 15, the range of extreme fear has reached 46 days. Bitcoin is still at 70772, this scene is very absurd, yet it is the most real snapshot of the crypto market this morning. Last Friday, Bitcoin bounced sharply from the panic low of 67400 to 71000, today it is oscillating in a narrow range of 68970-71300, with Ethereum currently quoted at 2610. In the last 24 hours, it has risen slightly by 1%, temporarily holding the 2100 support.

　　　Today's 24-hour total liquidation amount in the market is estimated to be between 234 million, belonging to a dual explosion of long and short. About 87,000 people were liquidated. Compared to last week’s severe volatility -- on March 23, Trump threatened to blow up Iran's power plant within 48 hours, resulting in 170,000 liquidations totaling 330 million USD, on March 19 after the FOMC hawkish meeting 135,000 people were liquidated with 452 million USD, today the market has clearly entered a breathing mode, but has not yet escaped fear.

　　　The reason why risk appetite cannot rise is due to three macro factors pressing down simultaneously. Rising oil prices directly strengthen inflation expectations; the U.S.-Iran tensions have entered their fourth week, although Trump's 48-hour threat has not been realized, the market has not completely ruled out the possibility of escalation; last week's FOMC maintained its hawkish stance on interest rates at 3.5%-3.75%, oil prices and geopolitical issues continue to weigh on risk assets.

　　　The next catalyst for the crypto market will focus on the PCE data published by the Fed on March 28 (Friday), which is the preferred inflation indicator. If PCE exceeds expectations, the interest rate cut timetable will be delayed again, and then Bitcoin's support pressure test will be unavoidable.

　　　Bitcoin 4-hour chart

　　　Bitcoin is currently in a volatile pattern coexisting with rebound repairs and upper pressure, with short-term trends leaning weakly, but the medium-term structure has not yet deteriorated.

　　　From the perspective of the core structure at the four-hour level, an upper downtrend line has formed resistance, and the price has shown hesitation after rebounding near this trend line. This indicates that bearish pressure has not faded, and the current rise is more of a technical rebound biased towards bulls, rather than a trend reversal.

　　　Observing the Bollinger Bands indicator, the middle track has become the current key dividing reference. The upper track has started to flatten out and has not further expanded, and the price is wobbling around the middle track. In short, the Bollinger Bands are currently in a contracting state, indicating that the market is about to make a directional choice. If the price cannot stabilize above the middle track, then the market trend leans towards bearish volatility; if it can effectively stabilize above the middle track, then there will be space for continued upward movement.

　　　At the key Fibonacci levels, three levels need to be focused on: the 0.382 level (about 70600) is the core area of the current long and short game; the 0.5 level (about 71600) constitutes strong pressure; the 0.618 level (about 72700) can be seen as a dividing point for long and short positions. Currently, the price is hovering around 0.382, indicating that this area is a tug-of-war zone between longs and shorts, not the starting point for a new round of trends.

　　　Looking at the core momentum reflected by the MACD indicator, its histogram has turned from green to red, indicating that the market has rebounded. However, the red bars have not continued to expand but have started to level off, while the DIF and DEA lines are sticking together. This directly indicates that the current rebound momentum is weakening, and the market does not have the conditions for accelerated upward movement.

　　　In terms of short-term rhythm, the KDJ indicator has moved to the mid-high range (about 60-70) and has shown signs of a downward turn. This suggests that short-term prices are not low, and there is a certain technical need for a pullback in the market.

　　　In summary, the most likely scenario is a slightly weak consolidation, wavering repetitively in the 70000-71600 range to build a base, during which there may be false breakouts followed by pullbacks. The corresponding operational thinking can adopt a high short low long strategy, but is more inclined toward high short. If the market chooses to break upwards, it must meet three conditions: a strong breakout above 71600, stabilizing above the 0.5 Fibonacci level, and a resumption of expansion in the MACD red bars, only then can it look towards 72700 or even higher targets; otherwise, any upward movement may be just a false breakout. Another scenario to guard against is a downward break; if the price falls below 70000 and the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, while the MACD green bars expand again, then the market may further probe down to 69000 or even the previous low around 67000.

　　　Key advice, the current price level is not where to chase the market up, but rather where to wait for a clear directional observation. If planning to go long, patiently wait for the price to pull back to the 69000-70000 range and then look for clear signs of a stop before intervening. If considering going short, one could wait for the price to rebound to the 71000-71600 area, and then when there are signs of weakness alongside high inability to sustain the upward push, take action.

　　　On the Ethereum side, one can short near 2200, with a stop-loss placed at 2246.

　　　Giving you a 100% accurate suggestion is not as good as providing you with the correct mindset and trend; teaching someone to fish is better than giving them a fish. Suggesting to earn in the moment is fleeting; teaching to earn for a lifetime is the key!

　　　Written on: (2026-03-25, 12:50)

　　　(Note - Big Immortal Says Coin) hereby declares: There may be delays in online publication, the above suggestions are for reference only. Investment involves risks, proceed with caution!

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