Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, focusing on the crypto market, Japan, South Korea, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks, reviewing the market with data and capturing opportunities with trends, produced by PANews.
BTC rebounds for several days, then retests 200-week moving average
Bitcoin has entered volatile corrections after a rebound of over 11%, market sentiment has eased from extreme panic, but it still faces support tests. The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has recorded a negative premium for 50 consecutive days, marking a historical record, reflecting significant selling pressure in the U.S. market, and overall risk appetite has not fully warmed up. Market maker Wintermute pointed out that this round of rebound is more of a "textbook recovery," driven by macro easing, the Federal Reserve's dovish tone, and institutional adoption of Ethereum, rather than a structural change; it may rise slightly in the short term but requires sustained capital inflows to confirm the trend.
On-chain data also does not provide clear optimistic signals; CryptoQuant analysts indicate that the Bitcoin NUPL metric remains at 0.158, although close to early 2023 levels, but the 30-day and 100-day EMA have not entered the negative zone of historic bear market bottoms, indicating that there may be further bottom-testing risks in this cycle. The Galaxy research team believes Bitcoin has gradually entered the value range, and the downside potential has narrowed, but if global liquidity tightens, the price could still fall back to the $40,000 to $46,000 range.
From a technical perspective, several traders are focusing on the support level around $63,000; if it can hold steady, it is expected to challenge the pressure zone of $64,600 to $65,000 again; if it falls below $63,000, the market may retest support near $60,000 or even $58,000, with short-term movements highly reliant on capital flows and macro policy changes.
Looking ahead, Federal Reserve policy will become the core variable affecting the trend of digital assets, with the market focusing on the latest meeting minutes, the dollar index, U.S. Treasury yields, and changes in ETF fund flows. If institutional funds resume net inflow, and U.S. market risk appetite improves, Bitcoin is expected to continue its challenge towards $65,000 or even higher; conversely, the $63,000 support will face testing.
Today's Highlights:
Bitcoin L2 network Botanix will gradually shut down, users need to withdraw assets before July 9
Base will activate the B20 token standard on the mainnet on July 9
Movement (MOVE) will unlock about 165 million tokens on July 9, worth approximately $2 million
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, SLX, BTC, ETH, AI
Bitcoin spot ETF: +$21.435 million, sustained 3 days of net inflow
Ethereum spot ETF: +$26.9252 million, sustained 4 days of net inflow
HYPE spot ETF: +$4.3227 million
SOL spot ETF: +$1.6720 million
Today's top gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization: M up 8.7%, ZEC up 4.6%, MORPH up 4.3%, BDX up 2.8%, JST up 2.7%.
Nikkei under pressure, declines for three consecutive days
The overnight Nasdaq index fell sharply, placing pressure on today's Tokyo Stock Exchange, the Nikkei 225 index fluctuated significantly throughout the day, ultimately closing down 2.11%, marking a third consecutive day of decline. Technology stocks led the decline, affected by the drag from U.S. chip stocks and resonance from the South Korean market.
The deteriorating situation in the Middle East has driven up energy costs, with Japan's reliance on oil from the Strait of Hormuz reaching 93.5%, inciting panic over imported inflation, directly impacting corporate profits. Overvalued technology stocks suffered significant setbacks, with semiconductor giant Tokyo Electron down 3.7%, and capacitor giant Taiyo Yuden, used for AI servers, plummeting 8.5%, while Advantest dropped 4.7%, indicating market doubts about the sustainability of the semiconductor boom cycle.
Japan's macro financial environment has entered a danger zone, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to 2.86%, a 30-year high, and the 30-year bond yield breaking above 3.98%. Daiwa Securities strategists noted that investor confidence in the AI sector has not restored, and Goldman Sachs economists warned that Japan might fall into a vicious cycle of debt and high interest expenditures. The market is paying close attention to the possible "fiscal dominance" situation of the Bank of Japan under fiscal pressure, with the next 48 hours requiring close monitoring of U.S. wholesale inventory data and Federal Reserve meeting minutes for guidance on global liquidity.
Chip stocks plummet, dragging the market down; South Korean stock market enters technical bear market
The South Korean stock market has become one of the most volatile markets in Asia. Influenced by adjustments in the global AI industry chain, profit-taking by foreign investors, and concentrated liquidations of leveraged funds, it closed down 5.35%. The index has cumulatively plunged over 20% from its historical high in late June, officially confirming entry into a technical bear market territory. The South Korean Ministry of Finance urgently stated that it will closely monitor risks with the central bank and regulatory agencies, specifically noting that the concentration of chip stocks has become a primary cause of market instability.
Previously profitable chip giants have devolved into the "artery" of the market's blood loss. Samsung Electronics' stock plummeted 6.25%, and SK Hynix dropped 5.68%, with the semiconductor sector's excessive concentration amplifying volatility; leveraged ETFs have become amplifiers of this volatility. A South Korean economist publicly criticized that KOSPI has gradually transformed into a "casino," and leveraged ETFs linked to single stocks have become a policy failure, not only amplifying market volatility but also continuously eroding corporate value and investor wealth.
IBK Investment Securities researcher Byun Jun-ho pointed out that the semiconductor industry’s stock prices are dramatically correcting in line with the inflection point of slowing earnings growth, and it is an indisputable fact that investment sentiment has peaked and started to decline. A portfolio manager from Fidelity International warned that the prosperity of AI semiconductors completely relies on the capital expenditures of a few tech giants totaling about $1 trillion per year. If this scale proves unsustainable, the descent into darkness will be unimaginable.
A-shares fluctuate downward, Hong Kong stocks lead strongly
A-shares showed a fluctuating downward trend on Wednesday, with the Shanghai index falling 0.49%, the Shenzhen index falling 1.87%, and the Growth Enterprise index dropping 1.7%.
Most individual stocks fell rather than rose, with the computing power, AI servers, and cloud computing sectors defying the trend and surging, as multiple stocks like Inspur Information, Sangfor Technologies, and Wangsu Science & Technology hit their upper trading limits; lithium batteries, cultivated diamonds, and humanoid robots have shown significant adjustments.
The semiconductor self-controllable main line launched a full-scale counterattack, with CanSemi hitting the upper trading limit, and Huahong Group rising over 10% and hitting a historical high, driven by international investment banks raising their target prices.
Hong Kong stocks opened high and rose strongly, with the Hang Seng Index rising about 700 points back above 24,000 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose over 5%, and technology stocks soared across the board.
Alibaba surged over 12%, with its market capitalization returning to HK$2 trillion, leading the market, with news stating that Taobao's flash sale losses have decreased faster than expected and Agent product integration is advancing;
Xiaomi Group's stock price soared over 10%, returning above HK$25, with the official high profile announcement of launching a new car brand "SkyNomad," with the first model already on the way in the second half of the year.
Zhishang encountered the sensitive moment when the first batch of cornerstone restricted stocks was released, not only without the usual stampede occurring, but rather gaining nearly 70% national-level strategic capital and local guiding funds with a firm commitment to hold long-term, while JPMorgan Chase went so far as to raise its target price to HK$2,000, stimulating its stock price to surge against the trend by 18% during trading;
Chip and tech stocks, including SMIC, Lenovo, and Kuaishou, experienced broad gains.
Southbound funds net bought over HK$11 billion, showing that funds are flowing from Korea and Japan to Hong Kong stocks' "domestic alternatives" and undervalued AI assets. Institutional opinions suggest that the valuation appeal of Hong Kong stocks resonates with fund rebalancing, with short-term catalysts including Federal Reserve minutes and Chinese macro data.
In the next day or two, pay attention to China's June CPI/PPI data, as central bank and market participants expect a policy rollout in the third quarter to improve liquidity, and the recovery of technology and consumption deserves focused tracking. The overall market searches for a new balance amid global fluctuations, and the resilience of Hong Kong stocks may continue.
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