Author: Gelong

Overnight, the AI industry chain in the US stock market plummeted significantly, with the Nasdaq closing down 1.33%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropping nearly 5%. Stocks related to storage, optical communication, and AI computing power generally encountered heavy declines.

Fear sentiments quickly transmitted across markets, with the Asia-Pacific market opening all lines dropping today. South Korean stocks, including Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, fell over 6%, leveraged ETFs that double the investments in Samsung and SK Hynix both plummeted over 14%, further magnifying volatility due to leveraged funds.

The A-share AI industry chain was also significantly impacted, with core sectors such as computing power, optical modules, and storage generally declining over 5%, and several leading companies in various segments dropping more than 8%.

The negative stimulation primarily comes from several aspects.

Firstly, the situation between the US and Iran has suddenly escalated, driving up oil prices and inflation expectations, thereby suppressing the valuation of the entire growth sector at a macro level.

The US has announced a suspension of negotiations with Iran, further intensifying regional conflicts, the Strait of Hormuz risk is rising, and international oil prices have surged again, reaching a three-week high. At the same time, the UAE has announced a suspension of all trade and financial dealings with Iran, escalating the regional tensions.

The rise in oil prices directly brings hidden concerns about inflation rebound, with the market reassessing the monetary policy space of the Federal Reserve.

Long-term US Treasury yields have risen sharply, with the yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds once hitting its highest level since 2007, and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries also showing significant upward movement.

In a high-interest-rate environment, high valuations and high capital expenditures in the AI sector bear the brunt of the impact.

The construction of AI computing power is highly reliant on debt financing, and this year, the supply of AI-related bonds has significantly exceeded previous annual expectations. BlackRock's bonds issued for Microsoft's data center approach the level of junk bonds, visibly reflecting the rising financing costs for AI infrastructure.

Goldman Sachs indicates that massive AI capital expenditures combined with sovereign deficits have led to a substantial influx of capital into the bond market, even raising the possibility that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain a relatively tight policy despite weakening economic data.

As financing costs continue to rise, the market has begun to reevaluate the logic of expanding computing power at any cost, leading to an initial sell-off in the AI hardware sector.

Secondly, there is a clear divergence in the commercialization of AI large models, with OpenAI's performance faltering, shattering the market's linear optimistic imagination regarding AI applications.

Recently disclosed data for the second quarter shows that OpenAI's quarterly revenue growth was only 18%, while operating losses continued to expand, and multiple company executives have left, raising doubts about internal management stability in the market.

Although competitor Anthropic achieved explosive revenue growth and a small profit, the differences in their revenue recognition do not represent that the entire industry has smoothly entered a profitable era.

The decline in OpenAI’s growth has made the market realize that the commercialization of AI large models is not smooth sailing, with significant challenges remaining in converting enterprise clients and controlling costs.

Previously, the market was used to unconditionally believing in the story of AI capital expenditures, but now investors are beginning to question how much actual revenue and profit can be derived from massive computing power investments. The AI industry chain has officially entered a period of evaluating its commercialization capabilities from the phase of "burning money to expand scale."

Thirdly, the ongoing investment game between South Korea and the US in semiconductors has escalated the uncertainty in the global storage industry chain, directly impacting the HBM storage sector, which is core to AI computing power.

The South Korean side has publicly denied reports that suggest prioritizing the construction of memory chip factories in the US. South Korea has already planned to invest over $580 billion into domestic chip and data center clusters.

If Samsung and SK Hynix are forced to establish large-scale memory production lines in the US, it will consume a substantial amount of corporate capital, weakening the semiconductor industry ecosystem in their home country.

However, the US's pressure tactics are multifaceted, not only using tariffs as leverage but also delaying investments that could spill over to affect cooperation in the security field between South Korea and the US.

This reflects the reality that "to earn money in the US market, capital must stay in the US, and must also comply with industrial demands." South Korean storage companies have gained huge profits by supplying HBM to the US AI market, while the US demands that companies return capital to build factories domestically; otherwise, they will face trade penalties.

The market is concerned that if further negotiations continue to drag on, whether South Korea chooses to compromise or resist, it will disrupt the global storage supply pattern.

If South Korea compromises, corporate capital will be diverted, and profits will be eroded by the high costs of establishing factories in the US; if they strongly resist, they may face the risk of trade barriers.

This dilemma has directly triggered fund sell-offs of Samsung and SK Hynix, with leveraged ETFs further amplifying the decline, as panic sentiments spread along the storage industry chain.

Of course, a short-term plunge does not mean that the logic of the AI industry has completely ended.

The long-term demand for AI computing power still objectively exists, but the market is no longer willing to pay high premiums for overly optimistic long-term stories.

Moving forward, the market focus will shift from merely observing the scale of capital expenditures to examining the real profit levels of enterprises, changes in financing costs, and the ultimate direction of global supply chain competitions.

For the A-share market, external emotional shocks bring more disturbances to the emotional level; follow-up attention needs to be paid to the orders and profit realization situations of the domestic industry chain itself to distinguish between short-term emotional sell-offs and substantial fundamental deterioration.