Every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, focusing on the crypto market, Japan, South Korea, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks, reviewing the market with data, seizing opportunities through trends, produced by PANews.
Liquidity Drying Up and Panic Emotion Resonating, Bitcoin Experiences Two Instances of Six Consecutive Weekly Losses This Year
Bitcoin has faced intense selling in the past 48 hours, with prices consecutively dropping below $72,000 and $70,000, at one point falling below $68,000, resulting in a weekly decline of 9.2%. Nearly $200 billion in market capitalization evaporated from the crypto market, the Fear and Greed Index plummeted to 20, entering the "extreme fear" zone, a record low in over four months, with Glassnode's market compass composite score falling to 11, indicating extreme risk aversion.
The demand in the US has come to a complete halt, with the Coinbase premium dropping to the deepest negative value since February, and BlackRock's IBIT experiencing a net outflow of over $2 billion within nine trading days. Talos research indicates that the order book depth of major exchanges has plummeted by 33% to $72 million, and extremely thin buying pressure under the sell-off of Binance whales has caused the options gamma hedging mechanism of market makers and investors' defenses to fail. Moreover, Ardi data shows that Bitcoin has only recorded six consecutive weekly losses once in 2014 and 2022 over the past 15 years, and it has now occurred twice this year, marking a historic first.
Panic spreading has heavily damaged on-chain bulls; Mlm Onchain data shows that up to 95% of Bitcoin bulls on Hyperliquid are deeply trapped, with 24,900 wallets carrying an unrealized loss of $130 million, with an average opening price of $75,565. Checkonchain analyst James Check pointed out that buyers who once FOMO'd above $80,000 are now panic selling, with realized losses locked in exceeding $680 million in just one day, and the scale of losses transferred from long-term and short-term holders is comparable to the bottom of this year's bear market.
Currently, traders are closely monitoring the last line of defense between $67,000 and $69,000, an area that not only marks the bull market peak in 2021 but also converges with the 200-week moving average ($67,800) and the historically emphasized power law "bottom line" ($68,000) by trader Rounder. Traders Killa and Scient noted that the current 22% decline has equaled the maximum retracement of the last bull market and breached the 200-day moving average. If buying pressure does not appear here to absorb and quickly rebound, prices may slide towards the February low of $60,000, or even dip to $57,000, which would trigger the largest cluster of long liquidations near $60,000 as monitored by Glassnode.
Regarding the future market path, the market has become embroiled in intense directional gambling. Analysts Colin Talks Crypto and Erik believe that after the short-term overselling, there may be a relief rebound towards the resistance zone of $72,000 to $76,000; the CoinAnk liquidation map shows that a massive short liquidation wall of up to $1.75 billion has accumulated above $68,500 to $75,000. Once triggered, it will be explosive, but after facing obstacles to the rebound, it may still retest the bottom at $60,000 or even lower to form a giant head-and-shoulders bottom right shoulder.
Despite the pervasive bearish sentiment, Doctor Profit and on-chain analyst Murphy still maintain a long-term bullish outlook, believing that the current situation is merely a transitional period following a bear market bottom rather than a continuation of decline; Real Vision's chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts pointed out that Bitcoin's leverage was already cleaned out in the first half of the year, and the true turning point now lies in the global liquidity inflection. Investors should closely monitor the S&P 500's 7,300 point 10-month moving average, the October US stock financing data, and overnight financing rate fluctuations; if US Treasury yields surge or US stocks drop sharply, forcing the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to resume bond purchases, Bitcoin may face a comeback.
*Note: Power Law Floor is a commonly used valuation model concept in the financial and cryptocurrency investment fields (especially in Bitcoin analysis). It refers to the lowest support boundary of the long-term price fluctuation channel of the asset in the "power law growth model."
Altcoin Leverage Out of Control, Ethereum is Said to be Bottoming as Whales Have Quietly Entered the Market
Ethereum has dropped below the $1,900 mark for the first time in three months, while the Top 200 equal-weight index, which measures altcoin performance, has plummeted by 25% since late September, over twice the decline of Bitcoin during the same period, as the market undergoes severe deleveraging.
The reason altcoins have become a disaster area lies in the previously inflated speculative bubble. Real Vision's chief analyst Jamie Coutts pointed out that while Bitcoin's funding rate and open interest remain moderate, altcoin leverage was crazily rebuilt during August and September; the open interest ratio of altcoins to Bitcoin surged to 1.66 times on September 27, reaching a 98th percentile extreme since 2022, approaching the bubble levels seen in the last two peak instances for altcoins. When volatility in US stocks surged and liquidity tightened in the crypto market, the high speculative leverage instantaneously transformed into fuel for relentless long liquidations.
From a technical perspective, trader CrediBULL Crypto believes that the upward drive of Ethereum has failed, and the market remains in the bottoming phase of a larger cycle. Trader Jesse Olson even provided an extreme bearish target of $1,338. However, amidst the brutal liquidation of retail investors, analyst CW has detected a sharp rise in the Ethereum "whale and retail Delta indicator" breaking above 0.6, indicating that whales are taking advantage of the retail downturn to accumulate long positions.
Today's Highlights:
Bitcoin Infrastructure Protocol Echo Protocol Ceases Operation
The Sui ecosystem wallet project Suiet stops development and maintenance
Kaia public delegated staking users need to manually migrate to a new contract, detailed guidelines released today
Aztec (AZTEC) unlocks approximately 797 million tokens, valued at about $10.3 million
YZY (YZY) unlocks approximately 29.17 million tokens, valued at about $8.4 million
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: BTC, XRP, ETH, BARD, NEAR
Bitcoin spot ETF saw a total net outflow of $300 million yesterday
Ethereum spot ETF saw a total net outflow of $145 million yesterday
Today's largest gainers among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization: PYTH up 4.4%, JUP up 2.8%, ZRO up 2.7%, ICP up 2%, BDX up 1.8%.
Geopolitical Conflicts and AI Giant Turmoil Double Hit, Asia-Pacific Stock Markets Deep in Tech Stock Sell-off
The rebound logic for major financial markets in the Asia-Pacific has completely collapsed, as escalating geopolitical conflicts and fundamental concerns over AI leaders prompted a massive retreat of foreign capital. The South Korean Composite Index surged nearly 3% in early trading but faced aggressive selling of over 370 billion won by foreign investors in the afternoon, ultimately closing down 0.98% at 5,290.53 points. The turmoil surrounding Nvidia's personnel changes continues to unfold, with Saxo Bank's Chief Investment Strategist Charu Chanana warning that concerns over AI spending returns have heightened supply chain valuation risks; storage giant SK Hynix plummeted 3.03%, SK Square fell 3.79%, and Samsung Electronics declined by 0.48%; despite South Korean President Lee Jae-myung promising legislation and administrative measures to support market normalization at a capital market forum, causing Shinhan Financial and KB Financial to rise over 4% to 5%, it still couldn't mask the 9.62% drop in Korean power stocks, indicating industrial fatigue.
In contrast, the Japanese stock market showed some resilience amid severe sector differentiation, with the Nikkei 225 index closing up 0.53%. The massive outage of Microsoft's cloud services caused disruptions in global tech companies, leading SoftBank Group's stock to drop sharply by 5.11% due to pressure from AI asset valuations; geopolitical movements in the Middle East further slammed the heavy industries and military sector, with Kawasaki Heavy Industries plunging 8.54% and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries down 7.45%, while Asics plummeted 14.32%; however, semiconductor manufacturing equipment manufacturers showed resilience, with Advantest rising 2.48%, Tokyo Electron slightly up 1.07%, and Fast Retailing up 2.33%, supporting the benchmark index from falling.
On Friday, both Hong Kong and A-shares encountered a "Black Friday," as computing and AI technology sectors became major disaster areas for capital outflows. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.6%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index plummeted over 3%; A-share indices opened high but fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing down 0.59%, the Shenzhen Composite Index down 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index plunging 3.32%, with total turnover reaching 1.67 trillion yuan and over 4,700 stocks declining.
The core logic behind the tech stock collapse is that the turbulence among overseas AI giants, the Microsoft cloud service outage, and noises in the US political arena about "restricting AI infrastructure" have completely shaken the market's confidence in the overvalued AI hardware and large model supply chains. In the Hong Kong stock market, AI large models, semiconductors, and PCB concepts all faced shutdowns, with Zhizhu plummeting over 11%, MINIMAX dropping over 8%, Kinpo's laminated board falling 9.70%, Lenovo Group down nearly 8%, Hua Hong Semiconductor and NIO dropping over 6%, and Kuaishou and Alibaba each falling over 4%. The A-share market was equally grim, with computing hardware concepts like CPO, PCB, and optical communication facing devastating blows, with Jingwang Electronics hitting the limit down, and former favorites like Tianfu Communication, Yuanjie Technology, and Xinyi Sheng all severely plunging.
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