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TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Jun 03, 2025 17:30
Morgan Stanley CEO Jimmy Damon's criticism of US Treasury bonds has also been followed up. Besson came out and said, "The United States will never default, this will never happen. We are in a warning zone, but we will never hit a wall." In fact, this is a correct nonsense. No matter how the market spoils US Treasury bonds, no one has ever said that they will default. US Treasury defaults are two different things. As long as the United States does not want to, it will never default because it can print money to buy it. In fact, the US Treasury is a show by both parties and the Federal Reserve, using a reluctant and reluctant approach to maintain the remaining credit. If the upper limit is really lifted and issued casually, there will definitely be a cliff like plunge in the short term. The 100 year zero interest US Treasury bond of Haihu Manor can be seen as a test balloon released by this idea. The recent stablecoin bill is also to some extent introducing new buying opportunities to alleviate the US debt crisis, but as a result, the previous model of the Federal Reserve buying Treasury bonds and issuing US dollars will gradually be divided and reduced by many institutions buying US bonds and issuing stablecoins, reducing their coinage rights. As the US dollar enters a weak cycle, Trump's industrial recovery will benefit at the same time. The depreciation of the US dollar is also inevitable. Morgan Stanley predicts that the US dollar index will fall by about 9% in the next year, to around 91. Huatai Research stated that according to various measurement methods, the US dollar is "overvalued" by 15-20%. If Trump were to eliminate the trade deficit through exchange rate adjustments, the US dollar would need to depreciate by more than 15%. Students who need RMB can start using it to exchange for some living expenses reserves in the near future. When the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, the US dollar will only weaken. Don't wait until it breaks 7 to think about changing money.
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Timeline

Jul 03, 16:35【The US dollar is currently experiencing its worst year in modern history】
Jul 03, 16:11【Federal Reserve interest rate decision discussed with candidates】
Jul 03, 16:10【US Treasury Secretary Besson talks about the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates】
Jul 03, 15:43【The US economy may experience longer periods of high inflation】
Jul 03, 15:13【After the passage of the Great Beautiful Act, the US fiscal deficit increased】
Jul 03, 14:23【June employment report affects the prospect of Fed interest rate cuts】
Jul 03, 13:19【US non farm payroll and unemployment rate data released】
Jul 03, 12:50【Non farm payroll data exceeds expectations, reducing the probability of interest rate cuts】
Jul 03, 12:49【Non farm data better than expected, market probability of interest rate cuts changes】
Jul 03, 12:47【The US job market remains stable, and the Federal Reserve may postpone interest rate cuts】

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