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0xTodd ( thinking )
0xTodd ( thinking )|Jun 22, 2025 16:16
I think there are two particularly charming rulers in the world One is that the annualized yield of 5% on US bonds can be bought for up to 30 years One is that a 100 square meter house in Huizhou, Guangdong only costs 75W We don't talk about Türkiye's debt or Argentina's treasury bond, we only talk about the United States. We don't talk about places like Hegang that are too remote, we only look at the Pearl River Delta. By looking at these two benchmarks, you will find that the actual construction cost of buying a 1000W house does not exceed 10%, and the remaining 90% is the premium of call options. Moreover, based on a rental to sales ratio of 2.5%, you would be losing 2.5% annually, which is equivalent to an interest of 25 RMB. This does not even include the inflation gap where the Chinese yuan is printed more than the US dollar. Not to mention, if it's a loan, the annual interest loss will be even greater. Some people insist that only by buying a house and living in it can one be happy. I think it's like this - if you buy a 100 square meter house for 1000 yuan in the same location, someone else who earns interest on 1000 yuan can rent a 200 square meter house. Although buying it oneself is happier, the latter is bigger. Alternatively, the latter can also rent a 100 square meter house, with an additional 25 million yuan for various expenses, creating more beautiful memories than the former, not less. So, if you want to recognize the behavior of buying a house, it's like using 2x-4x leverage to go long against the rate. And I agree with Teacher Yue's view that considering the current market and economic situation, buying a house is not even considered an investment, but can only be seen as consumption. Don't numb yourself with vague words like 'essential needs',' happiness', and 'creating beautiful memories'. Speak with cold and emotive numerical values. If a real estate developer uses these words to pour the house over the buyer, and the result is that you still believe it, then it's not appropriate.
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