The next step of interest rate cuts can be to return to a pause, and the subsequent path rhythm can be deduced through Owen's article. The market's expectation of reducing interest rates from three times to two times within the year (this expectation is constantly changing) has some rationality. Inflation is slowly rising, and tariffs will still transmit to some inflation. According to Powell's statement, "the inflation caused by tariffs is one-time, but it is not a one-time reaction", so it may become more prominent in the future. Looking at the previous calculation by CICC, https://((x.com))/qinbank/status/1960635209122242893? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A The inflation effect will reach its peak from this year to early next year. So it means that after the September rate cut, or even the November rate cut, the Federal Reserve may be forced to pause (the probability of rate hikes is not high). Then, when the inflation effect reaches its peak, it will fall back. In addition, when the term of President Powell is near the end, the intensity and pace of interest rate reduction by the Federal Reserve may be accelerated. With the existing yield control signs (the Ministry of Finance has increased the repurchase of treasury bond bonds in recent August), a really big era is coming. So the possible path ahead is to cut interest rates 1-2 times (in September and November, provided that both non farm payroll and inflation in August do not exceed expectations), pause and observe again, and wait until the inflation effect peaks and falls before returning to the pace of interest rate cuts+YCC+expanding the balance sheet at an appropriate time. Combining with the previous discussion about the era of fiscal dominance in this tweet, https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/195883274163153815? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A talked about the "fiscal expansion 2.0 period, with a solid medium to long term logic, and short-term small-scale risk shocks. These small-scale risk shocks may come from tariffs (which should have already been eliminated), possible inflation increases (currently experiencing a seedling, it needs to be proven whether it is a one-time event), and demonstrations by bond defenders (excessive bond issuance to replenish liquidity brings potential risks, of course, this shock should be much smaller than the same period in 2023) So the impact on the market in the first half of September will be mainly reflected in the market's concerns about inflation, as well as the small liquidity shock caused by excessive bond issuance (with a smaller impact than the same period in 2023). At the beginning of August, here is https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/1952742499338088657? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A mentioned that for the US stock market, a small-scale shock means a correction of around -10% in the overall market (hopefully within 10% this time). Before the US stock market completes the adjustment, it is estimated that it will be difficult for the cryptocurrency market to fully recover. However, the market did not continue to decline just because of this. The core issue was discussed in July: fiscal expansion 2.0+industry driven+limited easing, while interest rate cuts have significantly improved market liquidity and risk appetite. A wave of adjustment and deleveraging is beneficial for the market to rise again. The core is the future trend, whether it can reach a new high or stop moving forward again, which requires special attention. If, as mentioned at the beginning, inflation continues to rise and if interest rates are cut twice before being suspended, it will still exert pressure on the market. In the future, it may evolve into a large-scale wide range oscillation (perhaps another major oscillation trend in the second and third quarters of last year), and the performance of the US stock market should be better than that of the cryptocurrency in this period. When the inflation effect reaches its peak and falls back, the Federal Reserve will pause for the second time before returning to interest rate cuts, control the yield curve, and a large-scale upward trend will emerge. Of course, if the trend after inflation is gentler than expected and the one-time effect reaches its peak earlier, it may make the easing trend smoother. So we can also be more optimistic about the market.