Kai🥊
Kai🥊|Nov 16, 2025 11:37
Recently, my view on the market has been consistently bearish in the short term but bullish in the long term. To play it safe, I’m planning to buy the dip around Christmas. I’m optimistic about the market in Q1. As long as BTC keeps rising, there will be plenty of local opportunities for what people call a 'bull market.' As for BTC’s 4-year cycle, I think it’s already broken. With its growing scale, it’s increasingly influenced by geopolitics, the global macro environment, and U.S. economic policies. Previously, the 4-year cycle was driven by mining halvings, with Bitcoin being controlled by mining farms and exchanges. Changes in mining costs led to price cycles every 4 years. Now, Bitcoin has a relatively high stockpile, its growth rate has slowed, and Wall Street capital has started entering the game. The price is shifting from being controlled by mining farms to being influenced by Wall Street capital. Wall Street’s buying and selling will have a growing impact on Bitcoin, making it increasingly correlated with U.S. stocks. Bitcoin is moving further away from retail investors. The players have completely changed to 'never sell' public companies like MicroStrategy. I feel like next year, aside from the familiar MicroStrategy, more and more small and medium-sized enterprises will start treating Bitcoin as 'cash reserves.' Also, since it’s the end of the year, some fund managers in North America might adjust their positions due to year-end reports or rebalancing, creating short-term selling pressure. But this isn’t due to ETF rules—it’s just market behavior.
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